Putin's Nuclear Gamble

Aug 10, 2023

Putin's Nuclear Gamble

In recent weeks, the war in Ukraine has taken yet another frightening turn, one which shows just how desperate Putin has gotten. The newest developments are based around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

In early March of last year, Russian troops stormed and took control of the plant, where they kidnapped two top Ukrainian energy company officials. Despite the Russian occupation, the plant has continued to be run by Ukrainian staff, forced to work at gunpoint. It has also suffered numerous dangerous power outages and even taken damage from shelling by Russian forces.

But now things at Zaporizhzhia have become even more dire— especially after the destruction of the nearby Kakhovka dam, which independent investigations have linked to Russia. In recent days, Ukrainian officials have warned that Putin plans to do the same thing to the power plant, using explosive charges laid somewhere inside and potentially creating a nuclear disaster.

But just how credible are these threats by Putin’s regime? And if Zaporizhzhia is sabotaged, what will it mean for Ukraine, Russia, and the future of the war?

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Content

0.12 -> Kidnapping nuclear power plant officials, forcing Ukrainian staff to work at gunpoint,

5.46 -> secretly placing explosives inside the plant and possibly creating a nuclear catastrophe … Only

11.94 -> a complete maniac would resort to such extreme measures with potentially apocalyptic consequences

17.46 -> in order to win a war, and we’re pretty sure you know who we’re talking about.

21.42 -> In recent weeks, the war in Ukraine has taken yet another frightening turn,

25.74 -> one which shows just how desperate Putin has gotten. The newest developments are

31.02 -> based around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

33.06 -> Located in Ukraine’s southeast on the bank of the Dnipro River, Zaporizhzhia is the largest

38.88 -> nuclear power plant in Europe, and has become a serious concern since Russia’s invasion commenced.

45.06 -> In early March of last year, Russian troops stormed and took control of the plant,

50.04 -> where they kidnapped two top Ukrainian energy company officials. Despite the Russian occupation,

55.38 -> the plant has continued to be run by Ukrainian staff, forced to work at gunpoint.

60.18 -> It has also suffered numerous dangerous power outages and even taken damage from shelling by

66.06 -> Russian forces. But now things at Zaporizhzhia have become even more dire— especially after

70.92 -> the destruction of the nearby Kakhovka dam, which independent investigations have linked to Russia.

76.08 -> In recent days, Ukrainian officials have warned that

79.02 -> Putin plans to do the same thing to the power plant,

81.66 -> using explosive charges laid somewhere inside and potentially creating a nuclear disaster.

87.48 -> But just how credible are these threats by Putin’s regime? And if Zaporizhzhia is sabotaged,

93.6 -> what will it mean for Ukraine, Russia, and the future of the war?

97.56 -> Before diving into these questions, let’s take a quick look at the dramatic history of the plant.

102.24 -> The city of Zaporizhzhia, which sits about 60 miles north of the power plant,

106.8 -> was originally founded in 1770 to protect the southern territories

111.12 -> of the Russian Empire from invasion by Crimean Tatars. But as Russia expanded,

116.1 -> the city lost its strategic significance and became a small, rural town until the start of

122.16 -> the twentieth century. But following the Russian Revolution, Zaporizhzhia quickly industrialized,

126.84 -> as the Soviets built the Dnipro Hydroelectric Station, the Zaporizhzhia Steel Plant,

131.16 -> and the Dnipro Aluminium Plant. The city also came to play a key role in World War II,

136.38 -> becoming the scene of intense fighting between the USSR and Nazi Germany,

140.76 -> as well as temporary Nazi headquarters. To stop German advances, the Red Army eventually blew an

146.28 -> enormous hole in the nearby Dnipro hydroelectric dam in 1941, producing a flood wave that swept

152.22 -> from Zaporizhzhia to nearby Nikopol. The flood killed local residents as well as soldiers from

157.5 -> both armies, with historians estimating the death toll to be between 20,000 and 100,000.

163.74 -> When the war ended, the city and its surrounding industries were eventually

167.7 -> returned to Soviet control, setting up the plant’s modern significance.

171.96 -> The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was constructed throughout the 1980s. It has six

176.82 -> VVER-1000 style pressurized light water nuclear reactors, each fuelled with Enriched Uranium 235.

183.96 -> The first five were successively brought online between 1985 and 1989, while the sixth was added

190.5 -> several years later. When Ukraine declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1991,

195.06 -> the power plant became the property of the new country. It operated smoothly during the early

199.92 -> 21st century, but really became a place of concern following Russia’s 2014 annexation

205.38 -> of Crimea and aggression in the Donbas region. Shelling soon took place very close to the plant

210.9 -> and its operations were interrupted several times, leading to rolling blackouts across the region.

216.3 -> Even today, Ukraine gets about half of its electricity from 15 nuclear reactors at four

221.7 -> plants across the country, according to the World Nuclear Association. Zaporizhzhia alone

226.38 -> provided almost half of Ukraine’s nuclear power, until the service disruptions began as a result

231.84 -> of Russia’s invasion. And while shelling has repeatedly damaged the plant since the

236.22 -> full-scale invasion began last year, so far it has not resulted in a nuclear disaster.

241.02 -> But that could change very quickly. Warnings by Ukrainian and international officials have

246.84 -> become more dire since Russia allegedly blew up the nearby Kakhovka dam and hydroelectric

251.46 -> power plant on June 6, with many claiming the same could be done at Zaporizhzhia. The nuclear

256.38 -> plant also relies on water from the reservoir to provide power for its turbine condensers,

261.24 -> according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Things escalated further in early July,

266.64 -> as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed that Ukrainian intelligence had information that

271.98 -> Russian troops had placed explosives on the roof of the Zaporizhzhia plant.

275.4 -> This set off alarm bells around the world,

278.1 -> since the last nuclear incident to take place on Ukrainian soil —the infamous

282.78 -> 1986 Chernobyl disaster— is widely regarded as the worst in history.

287.46 -> But even at Chernobyl, the nuclear disaster was accidental. There has never before been a case

292.92 -> of an invading country weaponizing a nuclear power plant, and using it as a hostage threat in the way

298.62 -> Putin has been with Zaporizhzhia. Nor has there ever been such a large nuclear plant so squarely

304.38 -> in the middle of a warzone, which has complicated efforts to safeguard the reactors. Luckily,

309.36 -> after the explosion at the Kakhovka dam, the last of Zaporizhzhia’s six reactors was put

313.86 -> into “cold shutdown.” In this state, all control rods are inserted into the reactor core to stop

319.74 -> the nuclear fission reaction and generation of heat and pressure. This greatly reduced

324.18 -> the chances of a nuclear meltdown on the scale of Chernobyl, even if things around the plant

328.38 -> are far from safe. William Alberque, the director of strategy, technology and arms control at the

334.08 -> International Institute for Strategic Studies has said that "We're actually very, very lucky.

338.88 -> Any incident would not involve an active reactor, which could cause enormous environmental danger

344.88 -> and damage and deaths.” At the same time, Alberque also said the warnings from Ukrainian officials

350.4 -> should be taken very seriously, since "Anytime [Ukraine and the U.S.] think that a false flag

356.4 -> attack is going to happen, they talk about it early, often and loudly. And this is,

361.38 -> I think, an attempt to deter Russia from doing something that they're concerned may happen.”

365.46 -> So why would Putin do something as seemingly insane as blowing up a nuclear power plant?

370.92 -> Most likely as a sort of very scary deterrent for the West. Damage to Europe’s largest nuclear

376.56 -> power plant is just the sort of incident that would scare the hell out of the international

380.1 -> coalition supporting Ukraine. And it would show that Putin is serious,

383.94 -> without resorting to the use of an actual nuclear weapon, sending fallout back towards Moscow. And

389.64 -> the fact that he is seemingly willing to engage in such a desperate, high-stakes gamble shows

394.44 -> just how badly the invasion has gone. With the short-lived rebellion of the Wagner Group PMC

399.3 -> earlier in July, Putin is facing serious questions from even his most hard-core

404.22 -> supporters. An explosion at Zaporizhzhia could easily be turned into a false flag,

409.08 -> with Putin blaming Ukraine and claiming that as justification to continue the war effort. There

415.02 -> are also huge economic stakes surrounding the plant’s control and operations. Each of

419.82 -> Zaporizhzhia’s reactors would cost $7 billion to replace. These enormous sums mean Russia

425.28 -> likely doesn’t want to actually destroy any of the reactors. Instead, Putin probably hopes to

430.26 -> use the plant later to serve Russia’s own electricity market, according to analysis

434.58 -> by defense and security intelligence firm Janes. Should Russia keep control of the plant, Ukraine

440.4 -> would lose up to 20% of its domestic electricity generating capacity. This also makes its future

446.28 -> operations a huge strategic bargaining chip, one which could come into play later this year.

451.56 -> And according to Alburque, there are four possible ways Russia could be planning to

455.88 -> attack the plant: They could blow up the dry fuel storage, blow up the wet fuel storage,

460.5 -> blow up one of the reactor buildings itself or try to melt the nuclear fuel that's still in the

465.96 -> reactor. Each of these could play out slightly differently. If Russia strikes the plant from

470.46 -> outside and claims that Ukraine did it, they would be striking the heavily reinforced,

474.72 -> 4-foot-thick concrete walls. Unlike the Chernobyl-style RBMK reactors,

479.22 -> Zaporizhzhia is much more solid, and it would require a huge amount of weaponry to

483.78 -> break through the outside of a building. Even so, none of the possibilities are very good.

488.22 -> The least dangerous of the four scenarios would be blowing up the dry fuel storage.

492.24 -> The main impact of this type of attack would be on people in the direct downwind, who would have

497.4 -> an increased risk of cancer in their lifetime. Even without a true Chernobyl-style disaster,

502.26 -> this could potentially affect tens of thousands and would be very difficult to counteract in the

507.36 -> middle of an open war zone. Other possibilities are even more unpleasant to consider. The most

512.46 -> dangerous scenario would be to blow up the reactor vessel inside the building itself.

516.3 -> This would be similar to what Russia did when it blew up Kakhovka Dam. While it would not involve

521.22 -> opening a live reactor like occurred at Chernobyl, it would still involve burning nuclear fuel,

526.2 -> which could potentially melt through the floor, as happened in Japan in 2011. Because

531.3 -> the reactors are in cold shutdown, the risk of a true catastrophe is greatly reduced. As

536.4 -> Alburque has pointed out "None of these scenarios rise to the level of a Fukushima or Chernobyl,

541.44 -> unless they blow it up right from the inside and they guard it to make sure that no one

545.46 -> can do anything about it for a couple of weeks and the fuel builds up and then explodes.” With

550.32 -> the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on site, this is pretty unlikely. Alberque said the

556.68 -> IAEA is monitoring the reactors very closely, so it would be hard to plan such an explosion from

562.26 -> inside without IAEA's team seeing it. But that might not stop Putin. Ukrainian intelligence and

568.62 -> satellite imagery have confirmed the presence of multiple unknown objects on top of the building,

573.18 -> which may or may not be explosives. The IAEA also can’t be totally sure about any of this,

579.48 -> as their team has requested access to the roof of the building and other at-risk areas,

583.86 -> but has so far been unable to verify either way. Let’s say Putin actually pulls off an explosion

589.62 -> at Zaporizhzhia: how much damage could it do to Ukraine?

592.68 -> According to some experts, while it would certainly be bad, the effects of an explosion

597.84 -> would also be limited. The immediate death toll of such an event would probably be lower than

602.58 -> the floods unleashed by the Kakhovka Dam, which killed over 100 people and left close to a million

608.34 -> without clean drinking water. Similarly, the environmental impact of an explosion

612.84 -> at Zaporizhzhia would not be as severe as that of the flooding, which ruined local ecosystems,

618.06 -> killed more than 20,000 domesticated animals, and ruined hundreds of acres of Ukrainian farmland.

624 -> Overall, the flood caused an estimated 1.3 billion dollars of damage. The American Nuclear Society

630.36 -> has published similar findings, saying that the reactors being shut down has greatly limited

635.1 -> the risk of fallout from an explosion. They determined that in the worst case scenario,

639.18 -> it is unlikely that there would be enough radiation released to threaten public safety,

643.02 -> even in the case of deliberate sabotage of the reactors and spent fuel storage canisters. In the

648.3 -> event that the massive concrete structures could even be breached, the reactor shutdowns would

652.56 -> limit radiation damage to the area surrounding the plant. While this is clearly good news for the

657.12 -> European public, it’s not much reassurance to the Ukrianians with homes nearby the plant. Alberque

662.28 -> and others have admitted that anyone living within 20 miles of the reactor would still be at risk.

667.14 -> And there is also disagreement among experts as to the wider risk from a damaged plant.

671.7 -> Nuclear physicist Ed Lyman recently wrote that the American Nuclear Society was “dead wrong” about

677.82 -> the level of risk. He has argued that the reactor shutdown just means operators will have more time

682.8 -> to respond to a potential incident. Hopefully, that means they can fix any damage before the

687.54 -> cooling water in the reactor cores boils away, exposing the fuel assemblies and causing them to

692.52 -> overheat. Lyman also notes that even in shutdown mode, there are still a range of things that could

697.32 -> go wrong inside the reactor, such as a reduction in the levels of boron in the cooling water,

702 -> creating short-lived but still toxic fission products, such as iodine isotopes. It’s also

708.18 -> extremely rare for reactors to be maintained long-term in either hot or cold shutdown

712.68 -> modes with fuel still remaining in the core. Because it happens so rarely, there is limited

717.3 -> data and an increased risk of malfunction. As he ominously puts it: “Unfortunately, because of the

722.64 -> incredible stress that the greatly reduced staff at Zaporizhzhia are under, and the unclear lines

727.5 -> of command under Russian occupation, their ability to efficiently execute all the actions necessary

732.42 -> to mitigate any accident or sabotage attack is in grave doubt.” Essentially, even with all six

738.6 -> reactors in cold shutdown, there’s a whole lot of things that could go wrong. All of this casts some

743.64 -> doubt on the idea of limited fallout, especially if the war drags on for an extended period of

748.56 -> time with the plant’s status remaining uncertain. These possibilities are still concerning enough

753.9 -> that Ukrainian authorities recently conducted emergency drills nearby. The city of Zaporizhzhia

759.72 -> is about 62 miles north of the power plant: far enough to limit instant exposure, but still far

765.48 -> too close for comfort. So at the end of June 2023, hundreds of Ukrainian emergency workers put on

771.3 -> hazmat suits and got to work. They scoured the city and nearby villages with radiation

775.92 -> detectors and have been passing out iodine tablets to residents for months. During the recent drills

781.38 -> they also set up a tent set up to provide first aid, with emergency workers practicing hosing

786.06 -> people down with soap and going through the fake process of administering treatment to

790.26 -> individuals who play-acted victims from possible radiation-affected areas. This type of contingency

795.84 -> planning shows real concerns, especially since the procedures for containment would be far

800.7 -> more difficult in an active combat zone. Should something happen at the plant, the people would

805.74 -> be brought from radiation-contaminated areas to a location upwind where they would be given medical

810.72 -> and psychological assistance. The next stop would be a temporary holding center, where people would

816 -> be washed to wipe away surface radiation and then transported to evacuation points and hospitals.

820.98 -> According to the emergency services, in case of a nuclear disaster at the plant, approximately

825.84 -> 300,000 people would need to be evacuated from the areas closest to the facility. That covers four

831.9 -> regions: Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv. The evacuation would be mandatory,

838.32 -> and require massive logistics coordination. According to the Ukrainian government,

842.52 -> people will be allowed to bring their pets with them, while buses, trains, and personal cars would

847.5 -> be used for the evacuation from the affected zone. Residents in the area have also been preparing for

852.6 -> any possibility. Local Larysa Mykolaieva told ABC that “We need to prepare for the worst and

858.3 -> hope for the best.” She added that while the drill made her anxious, she understands why it is being

863.04 -> done. Her family, like many others, has already stocked up on large bottles of drinking water,

867.6 -> stored food supplies, and purchased masks to prepare for a possible disaster. In the nearby

872.88 -> areas controlled by Russia, similar preparations have been undertaken in the last few weeks.

877.32 -> Russian-installed government officials said they had evacuated 1,600 people, including 660

883.92 -> children, from the area directly around the plant. There are also the potential issues of who could

889.02 -> or would get civilians to safety and clean up the damage from an explosion. Zaporizhzhia sits very

894.36 -> close to the front line —one which could change quickly depending on the success of Ukraine’s

899.16 -> counteroffensive. Because of this, the ownership and control over the plant is likely to remain

904.14 -> disputed in the short term, and it’s unclear how or if Ukrainian and Russian occupation authorities

909.66 -> would coordinate a disaster response. According to the United Nations, “nuclear safety is the

914.82 -> responsibility of every nation that utilizes nuclear technology.” But there is no rulebook for

919.74 -> nuclear safety in a warzone. Since its occupation of the plant began in March last year, Russia has

925.26 -> designated it “federal property,” created a state-run company to oversee its operation,

930 -> and given it a pathetically small 500,000 Rubles for funding, the equivalent of USD $6,500. But

937.56 -> despite these actions, the plant and territory legally belongs to Ukraine, a position supported

942.72 -> by both international law and most countries in the world. So far, this situation has led to the

947.88 -> IAEA acting as a de-facto mediator between the two countries, while attempting to ensure that

953.46 -> the plant itself does not suffer damage. But if Putin decides to act on his plan to damage

958.2 -> Zaporizhzhia with explosives, this uneasy status quo could change in an instant. At that point,

963.48 -> it’s anyone’s guess whether Russia, Ukraine, or both would attempt to maintain control of the

968.04 -> plant and secure the nearby population. So what does the current situation at

971.88 -> Zaporizhzhia mean for the future of the war? For one thing, it’s a pretty clear sign that Putin

976.68 -> will not stop playing the politics of fear. By setting up the possibility of a false-flag attack,

981.24 -> he has essentially admitted that regular military strategy is failing him. Considering

985.98 -> how relatively close the plant is to Moscow, it seems as though he is somewhat confident that the

990.3 -> fallout would be limited, or only irradiate areas inside Ukraine. The natural conclusion

995.34 -> is that he is not going for damage, but instead for sheer terror, to try and regain his footing

1000.26 -> in a losing conflict. Perhaps he hopes that the threat of such extreme measures will get

1004.28 -> Russian hardliners behind him once again, or that fear of nuclear fallout will cause the West to

1009.14 -> question its support for Ukraine. Whatever his desired outcome here, it’s yet another display

1013.64 -> of a callous leader, one more like a mafia thug than the president of a great power.

1017.72 -> This also raises a final question: how should the international community go about dealing

1023.12 -> with Zaporizhzhia? Experts have come up with a number of strategies, mostly involving neutral

1028.1 -> peacekeepers who can oversee the plant’s operations and ensure that it isn’t used

1032.24 -> as a nuclear bargaining chip again. The most probable option for this is a demilitarized zone

1037.1 -> around the plant. But this would involve some sort of agreement between Ukraine and Russia,

1041.54 -> which doesn’t look very likely in the near future. Any outcome will also depend heavily

1045.86 -> on the success or failure of Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive, since it will determine who

1050.6 -> ultimately has control of the plant’s day-to-day operations. Given the enormous amount of energy

1055.16 -> it has provided to Ukraine in the past, the government in Kyiv will almost certainly try to

1059.48 -> retake and keep control of the plant. As always, it’s very hard to know what the future will bring,

1064.22 -> but one way or another, Zaporizhzhia is likely to be a major part of the war’s second year.

1069.26 -> But what do you think? Will Putin really set off explosives at the nuclear power plant,

1073.82 -> or is he just bluffing? And if not, what does this mean for the future of the war? Let us know

1079.04 -> in the comments section below, and don’t forget to subscribe for more military content and analysis.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-xNclqjjE0