Iran expert: Nuclear program 'advancing at the speed of light'
Iran expert: Nuclear program 'advancing at the speed of light'
International Crisis Group scholar Ali Vaez says, when Donald Trump dropped out of the Iran nuclear deal, he put their weapons program “in the microwave.” #CNN #News
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0.066 -> Ali Vaez
0.834 -> is the director of the Iran Project
2.869 -> at the International Crisis Group,
4.604 -> and he's joining me now from Washington.
7.707 -> Welcome back to the program.
10.61 -> Thank you.
11.011 -> Great to be with you, Christiane.
12.345 -> So, okay, so look,
13.513 -> remind us where we were this time
16.916 -> five years ago
17.884 -> in terms of controlling
20.02 -> the Iranian nuclear program
22.555 -> and where we are now.
26.226 -> So on eighth of May
27.994 -> 20, 18, Iran was under the most rigorous
31.965 -> monitoring regime
33.5 -> that has ever been established by the UN
35.802 -> nuclear watchdog.
37.704 -> It would take Iran about 12 months
40.173 -> to enrich enough
41.641 -> nuclear material
42.542 -> for a single nuclear weapon.
45.145 -> And Iran was fully complying
47.547 -> by its obligations under the deal.
50.216 -> And of course, by the time that President
53.82 -> Biden walked into the Oval Office,
55.922 -> that timeline had shrunk
58.425 -> and is now right now,
59.692 -> according to Pentagon officials,
61.895 -> at 12 days
63.329 -> instead of 12 months, it is 12 days.
66.032 -> And Iran has rolled back
67.333 -> a lot of those monitoring mechanisms.
69.235 -> And so the transparency of the program
71.671 -> is way
72.038 -> less than what it was in the past
73.74 -> than the IAEA is blind
75.041 -> about a lot of Iran's nuclear activities.
77.043 -> So in one sentence, Christian,
79.879 -> the Trump administration
80.947 -> managed to take Iran's nuclear program
82.816 -> out of a box
84.184 -> and to put it in the microwave.
86.252 -> Wow.
87.253 -> That's dramatic, the way you say that.
88.621 -> So just just just be clear.
90.824 -> The Trump administration said
92.358 -> that we can get a better deal
93.96 -> and they launched
94.761 -> a process called maximum pressure
96.696 -> where they tried to squeeze
98.331 -> Iran with more sanctions and a lot more
101.334 -> punitive measures,
102.602 -> thinking that
103.269 -> that would cause them
104.471 -> to act in a different way.
106.473 -> What exactly did maximum pressure achieve
111.611 -> Well, it has been an abject
113.012 -> failure across the board.
114.481 -> Of course,
115.081 -> it has brought Iran
116.282 -> to the verge of nuclear weapons.
117.717 -> Iran has never been closer
119.853 -> and it has also rendered
122.122 -> Iran much more aggressive
124.023 -> in the region in 2019.
125.592 -> You remember the hot summer of that year
128.361 -> when Iran started attacking
130.563 -> shipping lanes and tankers and energy
134.167 -> infrastructure,
135.335 -> including in Saudi Arabia.
137.504 -> And it has rendered Iran
138.838 -> much more aggressive
140.073 -> and repressive at home.
141.941 -> We have seen that every protest
143.91 -> that has happened since maximum pressure
146.546 -> has been met with the brutality
149.382 -> that we've all seen on on TV screens
152.085 -> in the past few years.
153.92 -> And I will want to also add
156.656 -> that let's not
158.091 -> forget the fact that the Iranian people
160.46 -> have been living under
162.128 -> not just pressure
162.962 -> from the above,
163.596 -> from their own regime,
164.597 -> but also pressure from the outside,
166.299 -> from the United States and estimates
169.302 -> suggest that at least around
171.971 -> 600 people have died as a result of short
175.275 -> shortages of medicine
177.11 -> that the US sanctions have caused
179.679 -> Oliver.
180.18 -> So what then is the option?
182.882 -> We said,
183.65 -> and we know that there have been
185.618 -> basically indirect negotiations
187.587 -> between Iran
188.321 -> and the United States
189.088 -> via the Europeans
190.089 -> and the other signatories to the
192.091 -> what was known
192.625 -> as the JCPOA, the nuclear deal.
195.528 -> But President Biden was caught
197.163 -> sort of off Mike not so long ago
200.2 -> saying that this deal is dead.
203.636 -> Is it completely dead?
205.104 -> Is there any attempt?
206.239 -> I know that you and other experts
208.942 -> like Vali Nasr
209.943 -> and even J Street, the
211.711 -> the the Israeli activists,
213.346 -> the Jewish activist group in Washington,
215.748 -> have called
216.416 -> for a different kind of engagement.
220.62 -> Can you walk us through that?
223.99 -> Sure.
224.591 -> First, Christian,
225.592 -> let me say that as a proponent
227.594 -> of the nuclear deal
228.528 -> with Iran, it's
229.262 -> very hard for me to admit that
232.298 -> the Biden administration
233.433 -> and the hardliners
234.167 -> in Iran succeeded
235.401 -> in what
236.236 -> President Trump failed at,
237.537 -> which was to kill the JCPOA.
239.439 -> Now, there's plenty of blame
240.607 -> to go around.
241.941 -> I think obviously the original sin
244.41 -> was committed by Donald Trump But
247.914 -> but then the Biden administration
250.283 -> hesitated in 20, 21 and in 2022,
253.419 -> Iran miscalculated and lost
256.222 -> multiple opportunities
257.323 -> to restore the deal.
259.158 -> Right now, as we speak,
260.627 -> I think the White House's preferences
262.528 -> for some kind of a narrower agreement,
265.365 -> an interim deal
266.432 -> that would just freeze the program
268.201 -> so that it would not become a problem
270.336 -> in an election year
271.504 -> as we enter into the campaign period and
275.808 -> and the Iranians
276.743 -> are really not interested in
278.411 -> anything less than the JCPOA
280.246 -> because even the deal itself really
282.181 -> didn't benefit them economically
283.683 -> as much as the extent expected
285.652 -> a narrower deal would definitely
287.92 -> not do that.
288.988 -> So we're currently in a situation
290.723 -> that I describe as no deal, no crises
293.493 -> that I think
294.294 -> the Biden administration
295.261 -> would want to extend until 20, 25.
298.097 -> But there are two problems with it.
299.632 -> Number one, it is unstable.
301.334 -> We're really at the mercy
302.635 -> of a single incident.
303.836 -> If Israel, for instance, commits
306.439 -> another sabotage
307.74 -> of an Iranian nuclear facility,
309.275 -> assassination
309.976 -> of an Iranian nuclear scientist,
311.878 -> we might see
312.578 -> significant escalation
314.18 -> in ways that would cross a US or Israeli
317.65 -> red line, for instance,
318.618 -> if the Iranians enrich to 90%.
321.688 -> The second problem with with the strategy
323.856 -> is that imagine we can keep a lid on it
326.392 -> until 20, 25.
327.794 -> Then what
328.728 -> in 2025
329.829 -> Iran would have 200% of the leverage
332.131 -> it had in 2015.
333.666 -> It is not going to agree to a deal
335.435 -> that is tilted
336.135 -> more in the interest of the United States
338.037 -> is probably going to ask
339.372 -> for way more concessions
341.14 -> that even the next administration
342.575 -> would not be able to afford.
344.544 -> And that is why I think time has come
346.746 -> for a new thinking,
348.381 -> different kind of thinking.
350.149 -> And what we are suggesting right now
353.119 -> is that if you look at
355.988 -> the current situation compared to 20, 15
358.291 -> and 2015, Iran had good relations
360.693 -> with the West and was on speaking terms
362.528 -> with the United States but bad relations.
364.831 -> What its neighbors in the Gulf region
366.933 -> now is the other way around.
368.601 -> And in that there is an opportunity
370.937 -> to make sure
371.838 -> that Iran can actually benefit
373.339 -> from an agreement
374.741 -> by encouraging the economic incentives
377.71 -> to go to Iran via
379.278 -> the Gulf
379.879 -> rather than from Europe
382.181 -> and the United States.
383.216 -> And in return
384.45 -> Iran and the Gulf Cooperation
386.619 -> Council countries
388.02 -> could come to an agreement
389.222 -> that they would all
390.456 -> accept permanent limits
392.558 -> on the level of enrichment
393.993 -> and reprocessing
395.261 -> of plutonium
396.295 -> and on ratification
397.663 -> of the additional protocol,
399.031 -> which ensures
400.566 -> a very high level of transparency
402.668 -> in a permanent fashion.
404.07 -> So let me
404.637 -> then put this to you,
405.571 -> because I've obviously interviewed
406.806 -> quite a few people on this,
408.641 -> because it is getting,
409.942 -> as you say,
410.443 -> to a very, very threshold level
413.513 -> and very rapid breakout level.
415.982 -> I spoke to former Secretary of State
417.85 -> Hillary Clinton
419.285 -> not so long ago, but of course,
421.02 -> it was also at a time
422.789 -> which is still the case
424.023 -> where many people around
425.558 -> the world are very, very concerned
428.594 -> that what happened
429.896 -> in violating the human
430.963 -> rights of so many people in Iran
432.632 -> during the women's protests
434.4 -> the jailings,
435.301 -> the executions,
436.569 -> the sham trials, the crackdowns.
440.373 -> None of this is conducive.
442.475 -> This is what Hillary Clinton told me
444.544 -> about the possibility of negotiating.
448.981 -> I would not be negotiating
450.583 -> with Iran on anything
452.084 -> right now,
452.618 -> including the nuclear agreement.
454.353 -> I think that, frankly, horse
456.189 -> is out of the barn
457.123 -> when Trump pulled us out.
458.491 -> We lost
460.56 -> the eyes that we had
462.195 -> on what they were doing inside Iran.
464.33 -> And I believe that
466.299 -> they started those centrifuges
468.367 -> spinning again.
469.469 -> And I think it's unlikely
471.604 -> that any agreement would be agreed to.
474.474 -> And I don't think we should look like
475.775 -> we're seeking an agreement
477.276 -> at a time
477.944 -> when the people of Iran are standing up
480.98 -> to their oppressors.
483.95 -> So, I mean, that's a compelling case
485.685 -> for not dealing with them at this moment.
488.888 -> Do you think that still stands
490.456 -> is that kind of feeling and I understand
493.593 -> it exists in parts of the EU as well.
497.63 -> Is that going to sort of
499.131 -> rule the day at the moment?
502.435 -> Look, the West can choose
503.97 -> not to negotiate with Iran,
505.404 -> but it wouldn't resolve the problem.
506.973 -> Iran's nuclear program is still advancing
509.742 -> at the speed of light.
510.61 -> And at some stage
511.978 -> we would be once again
513.212 -> faced with the dilemma of
514.547 -> whether we can live with Iran
516.315 -> with a bomb or bomb Iran.
517.783 -> And so
518.551 -> we would eventually get to that stage
520.186 -> unless we find a solution
522.021 -> And, you know,
523.055 -> it's true
523.656 -> that it's difficult
524.957 -> to deal with unsavory murderous regimes.
527.76 -> But if we wanted to apply that logic,
531.03 -> for instance,
531.631 -> to the Soviet Union
532.765 -> and say that as long as the Soviet Union
535.101 -> was engaged
535.835 -> in violations of human
537.069 -> rights or policy or foreign policy,
540.306 -> that was problematic
541.374 -> from the Western perspective,
543.276 -> we would never agree to arms control
544.944 -> deals with them.
546.212 -> We would be living in
547.079 -> a much more dangerous world right now.
548.881 -> And a regime like the Iranian regime
551.35 -> that cannot be trusted,
552.485 -> even with pellet guns, as we have seen
555.021 -> it has blinded
555.955 -> hundreds of peaceful protesters
557.99 -> in the past few months.
559.292 -> How can we distrust this regime
561.594 -> with the deadliest weapons out there?
563.696 -> And so I do believe that
565.898 -> regardless of the nature of the regime,
568.367 -> there is a need to find a solution to
570.803 -> this nuclear crisis.
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aE_FcR0omi0