As nuclear tensions rise, the Renew Democracy Initiative, in collaboration with New Debate and General Ben Hodges, brings you a special episode. General Hodges continues his discussion with security expert Edward Lucas on Russia’s potential use of tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine. The two remain confident that this possibility will not become a reality, but argue that Putin’s threats should be taken seriously.
Hodges and Lucas articulate their skepticism about the validity of Putin’s willingness to use nuclear weapons. There would be pushback within Russia over a decision to use nuclear weapons, and there would likely be interference from China and the West. Ultimately, they find no clear and compelling case for Putin to use nuclear weapons. Pointing to nuclear weapons as a deterrent against an attack on the Russian homeland by a nuclear-armed adversary, they determine that their use has only downsides in Ukraine.
Lucas notes that the response from the international community to a Russian nuclear attack would be enormous. He clarifies that using nuclear weapons is not as easy as Hollywood would have us believe. If Russia were to take this route, he estimates it would destroy Russian relations with China and India. Furthermore, it would make Russia an international pariah state beyond even North Korea.
Hodges concludes that the United States would have to react if Russia were to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. He notes that the Biden administration has clarified the devastating consequences of such actions. A US reprisal could have a catastrophic effect on the Russian Black Sea fleet, Russian forces, and other Russian capabilities inside Ukraine. They note in unison that there is no battlefield advantage to using nuclear weapons under the circumstances of the war and that it would furthermore have no effect on Ukrainian resolve.
Hodges and Lucas agree that the West is overestimating the risk of potential Russian escalation to the detriment of Ukrainian victory. Thus far, they describe the West’s course of action as “too little, too late.” If the West had clarified its willingness to support Ukraine a year ago, they surmise that Russia would never have invaded in the first place.
Presented by: Lieutenant General (Retired) Ben Hodges. United States Army
With: Edward Lucas
Filmed and Edited by: Dan Poole
Additional Camera: Tom Child
Grooming: Nicola Harrowell
Sound Design by: JD Evans
VFX by: Smith Robinson Multimedia
Produced by: Matt Dreher Cort Kristensen Dan Poole
Executive Producers: Uriel Epshtein Noor Greene
Additional Graphics: Gabriel Strobel
Licensed Archive by: Pond 5 Planet Labs
Licensed Music by: Audio Network Special thanks to Laurence Markham and Duncan Flight and Park Plaza Westminster
