What We Know About How a Russian Nuclear Strike Could Play Out | WSJ
What We Know About How a Russian Nuclear Strike Could Play Out | WSJ
As Russia suffers losses in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has made veiled threats to use nuclear weapons—a scenario that security experts still deem unlikely. WSJ looks at satellite images and documents to understand how the process of launching a strike would work.
Photo composite: Eve Hartley
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Content
0.673 -> (click)
1.506 -> - These are some of the storage units
2.37 -> where Russia houses its atomic warheads.
4.92 -> Satellite images are a
key tool for the world
7.23 -> to keep an eye on the nuclear sites
8.97 -> dotted across the country.
11.49 -> As Russian President Vladimir Putin
13.17 -> suffers losses in
Ukraine, he has suggested
15.63 -> that he was ready to
use his nuclear arsenal.
17.9 -> - (speaking Russian)
25.871 -> - A nuclear strike is still widely seen
27.84 -> as an unlikely scenario,
29.61 -> but Western officials have
said they are concerned,
31.77 -> and President Biden warned
the world could face
33.81 -> the prospect of an Armageddon.
35.67 -> So how would a Russian
nuclear strike play out?
38.28 -> - It's not like there is a big red button
41.45 -> on the president's desk.
43.38 -> - By looking at a map of
Russia, we can learn a lot
45.99 -> about how Putin would
activate his atomic force.
50.31 -> These dots represent the known locations
52.35 -> where Russia houses some
of its nuclear weapons.
55.35 -> Bases like these have been
identified by analysts
57.6 -> who monitor nuclear arsenals
59.31 -> using satellite images and other sources.
62.49 -> The red ones indicate sites
63.84 -> where tactical nuclear
warheads are stored.
66.39 -> Typically, these are
lower yield weapons used
68.73 -> on delivery systems with
a range under 310 miles.
72.72 -> And the blue dots represent
73.89 -> where some of Moscow's
strategic weapons are deployed.
76.92 -> These have more power
78.06 -> and can travel up to about 9,000 miles.
81.33 -> If Moscow decided to
launch a nuclear attack,
83.7 -> many Western and Ukrainian
officials believe
85.95 -> it would turn to tactical weapons.
88.29 -> - Normally, it is assumed
that strategic weapons
90.927 -> are the last things you touch.
93.21 -> - Hans Kristensen is the director
94.77 -> of the Nuclear Information Project,
96.72 -> and has been studying Russian
nuclear weapons for decades.
99.69 -> - The assumption is that
tactical nuclear weapons,
101.73 -> to the extent that they would
escalate to nuclear use,
104.7 -> would be the first that would be used.
107.19 -> - Russia has 2,889 warheads in storage,
110.73 -> according to American analysts.
112.77 -> That's almost 1,000 more than the US.
116.52 -> And even those tactical weapons
118.05 -> can be very powerful and destructive.
120.51 -> The RN-40 gravity bomb,
carried in jets such as these,
124.35 -> has the same estimated power
as 30 kilotons of dynamite.
128.52 -> That's more than the
bombs that were dropped
130.14 -> on Hiroshima and Nagasaki,
at about 15 to 20 kilotons,
134.64 -> and much less than
Russia's strategic weapons.
137.19 -> These intercontinental
ballistic missiles, for example,
140.19 -> can have a yield of 300 to 800 kilotons.
143.49 -> A strike using those
weapons would be enough
145.74 -> to destroy any major city,
according to Kristensen.
150.15 -> If Russia was to actually deploy
151.71 -> tactical nuclear weapons at these sites,
154.11 -> it would first have to tackle
some logistical challenges.
157.35 -> That starts with retrieving the warheads
159.12 -> from the storage bunkers or
units that they're housed in.
162.12 -> - Those weapons are all in
valid storage facilities.
166.11 -> - Pavel Podvig is a Geneva-based
nuclear weapons expert
169.11 -> who tracks Russian storage bases.
171 -> - These are normally some distance
173.64 -> from the delivery systems.
175.59 -> - Take this site in Belgorod
177.03 -> near the border with Ukraine, for example.
179.25 -> On a nuclear order, the
site personnel would have
181.68 -> to retrieve the warheads from bunkers.
184.08 -> Then they would load them onto trucks
185.64 -> in special climate-controlled containers
188.13 -> and transport them to an airfield
189.78 -> or designated point near a
missile base like this one.
194.22 -> Once they arrive, they would
then need to be installed
196.65 -> on a launcher or airplane.
198.6 -> So actually deploying them for combat
200.67 -> could take many hours or up to a few days,
203.01 -> military analysts say.
204.81 -> That whole process would
be very hard to complete
206.91 -> without other countries realizing,
208.77 -> as movements are being
tracked by intelligence teams,
211.2 -> according to defense experts.
213.3 -> So Russia appears to have
taken steps to be less visible.
216.54 -> - If you look at the satellite photos
217.92 -> over these nuclear weapons storage sites,
219.9 -> they typically have sort of a roof
223.26 -> or a garage at the entrance.
226.05 -> So, any truck that drives
up goes into this garage,
229.44 -> so you can't see what
they're loading on board.
232.32 -> - But increasing the chances
233.55 -> the message of a strike would spread
235.08 -> is the multiple personnel
involved along the way.
239.49 -> The group responsible for
Russia's nuclear weapons
241.71 -> is a special unit called
the 12th Chief Directorate.
244.71 -> Analysts say the individuals in that force
247.11 -> could potentially oppose strikes.
249.57 -> - The military would be
part of that process.
253.02 -> They would have a chance at least
256.44 -> to offer their opinion on the plan,
260.43 -> whether it would go ahead.
263.22 -> - If movement at the
facilities was detected,
265.53 -> the West could respond
in a number of ways,
267.87 -> according to military analysts.
270.15 -> One scenario is that
countries could target
272.25 -> Moscow's storage bases,
which carries huge risks.
275.67 -> while another is imposing more sanctions.
279.75 -> Strategic nuclear weapons
281.22 -> like this intercontinental
ballistic missile
283.65 -> are even less likely to be used,
285.78 -> but hypothetically they would
be much quicker to deploy.
289.26 -> - They're standing in
their silos, the missiles,
291.99 -> or they're on board ballistic
missiles submarines,
294.84 -> and they're loaded with nuclear warheads,
297.3 -> ready to fly on, you
know, in a few minutes.
301.8 -> - However, before any of that,
303.39 -> Putin would need to
actually order a strike,
306 -> and there's a series of
steps that need to take place
308.07 -> within the Kremlin for that to happen.
310.41 -> The process is secretive
and hard to monitor,
312.93 -> and could even have changed
since the Ukraine War began.
316.62 -> Defense analysts have
made an educated guess
318.78 -> how it would unfold, based
on documents and sources.
322.68 -> - The theory is that
there are three people
327.3 -> that need to be involved
329.88 -> in an actual launch of a
Russian nuclear weapon,
333.778 -> the Russian President, Putin,
and the Minister of Defense,
337.47 -> and then also the Chief
of the Armed Forces.
339.54 -> They're supposed to have
three briefcases, so to speak,
342.45 -> electronic communication
devices they can use
345.51 -> to activate the nuclear option.
348.3 -> - Some defense experts
believe that two out of three
350.76 -> of those officials would need to agree
352.44 -> for the strike to be carried out.
353.82 -> - If that is, in fact, the setup,
356.94 -> then it's very different
from the American setup
360.33 -> where the president has the
sole authority to launch this,
363.27 -> and he doesn't require...
365.4 -> he doesn't need approval from anyone else.
367.95 -> - In addition to the chain of command,
369.66 -> Russia has a strategic planning document,
371.82 -> or military doctrine,
373.26 -> which lays out how nuclear
weapons could be used.
376.89 -> The document says it allows
the use of nuclear weapons
379.5 -> if they, or other types of
weapons of mass destruction,
382.65 -> are used against it,
384.12 -> as well as in the event of aggression
385.8 -> that threatens the existence
of the Russian Federation.
388.65 -> The interpretation of that document
390.3 -> rests on the shoulders of Putin,
391.98 -> who has already said the
territorial integrity of Russia
394.68 -> may be threatened,
395.94 -> and has claimed the annexation
397.44 -> of four Ukrainian territories.
399.54 -> When asked if Russia could use
nuclear weapons in Ukraine,
402.45 -> Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov,
404.25 -> told the Wall Street Journal,
405.427 -> "We consider such inflated
nuclear rhetoric unacceptable."
411.57 -> But with Moscow facing
setbacks in Ukraine,
414 -> officials and military analysts say
415.86 -> the use of tactical weapons
can't be completely ruled out.
419.328 -> (upbeat music)
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5yCz_UN5CE