MIT Has Predicted that Society Will Collapse in 2040 | Economics Explained

MIT Has Predicted that Society Will Collapse in 2040 | Economics Explained


MIT Has Predicted that Society Will Collapse in 2040 | Economics Explained

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Content

0.24 -> in 1972 researchers at mit concluded
3.199 -> that society was on track to collapse by
5.279 -> the year 2040. a follow-up study
7.759 -> conducted by an analyst at kpmg found
10.16 -> that we are ahead of schedule advanced
12.799 -> human civilizations have existed for at
15.2 -> best 10 000 years in that time many
18.16 -> great empires rose from nothing and
19.92 -> returned to nothing leaving behind
21.84 -> little more than artifacts and crumbling
23.6 -> architecture while it's hard for
25.439 -> historians to definitively say what
27.439 -> caused any of these particular collapses
29.92 -> the determining factors tend to fall
31.599 -> into four broad categories political
34.32 -> issues social and cultural issues
36.8 -> environmental issues and of course the
38.879 -> one that we're specifically interested
40.239 -> in economic issues any civilization that
43.6 -> has been reduced to little more than an
45.12 -> entry into a textbook fell through some
47.2 -> combination of these four factors
50.16 -> some were almost instantaneous the great
52.559 -> city of pompeii succumbing to the
54.079 -> eruption of mount vesuvius some took a
56.399 -> few weeks the aztec empire collapsed
58.32 -> after 93 days of resistance against the
60.48 -> spanish and some took centuries 300
63.92 -> years separated the height of the roman
65.519 -> empire with its eventual collapse our
68.24 -> modern civilization is the greatest ever
70.56 -> known hundreds of thousands of times
72.72 -> wealthier and more advanced than even
74.32 -> the most massive empires of history
75.92 -> could have imagined if you are watching
77.84 -> this video you have access to the
79.68 -> internet if you have access to the
81.28 -> internet you have access to a source of
83.04 -> knowledge that scholars and kings could
84.64 -> not have dreamt of just a hundred years
86.32 -> ago the same is true for other modern
88.479 -> luxuries that we take for granted
90.159 -> climate control worldwide travel cheap
92.4 -> and effective clothing medicine
94 -> instantaneous communication plentiful
96.079 -> and safe food water on tap and even
98.64 -> little luxuries like being able to
100 -> listen to your favorite song pretty much
101.759 -> whenever you feel like it a question i
103.92 -> get asked a lot is who is the richest
105.84 -> person in history the answer elon musk
109.119 -> or it was about a week ago when he was
110.88 -> worth more than 270 billion dollars that
113.439 -> might have changed depending on when you
114.72 -> actually watch this video oh but what
116.96 -> about rockefeller the rothschilds the
118.88 -> romanovs or even this monster moosa
120.88 -> fella that people keep on bringing up
122.799 -> what about them sure they were rich for
125.2 -> their time but their time was one of
127.52 -> almost universal poverty despite their
130.08 -> relative wealth they couldn't dream of
132 -> all the amenities that you think nothing
133.68 -> of let me tell you if i had the choice
135.92 -> between my modern rented two-bedroom
137.76 -> apartment and a sprawling 15th century
140.319 -> french palace with no air conditioning
142.319 -> no plumbing and no food that wouldn't
144.08 -> give me cholera i would take the
145.84 -> apartment 10 times out of 10 and you are
148.56 -> a fool if you wouldn't do the same the
151.04 -> best part is i haven't even mentioned
152.8 -> war yet despite what most people might
154.959 -> think based on their diet of cable news
156.8 -> on the front page of reddit we are
158.239 -> living through one of the most peaceful
159.68 -> periods in human history ever
162.16 -> overwhelmingly this has all been thanks
163.76 -> to a combination of technology education
166.16 -> and global cooperation even nations that
168.879 -> have resentful hostilities bubbling away
171.04 -> beneath the surface are more dependent
172.959 -> on one another today than even the
174.8 -> closest of allies were back in the time
176.64 -> of napoleon why get hostile when you can
179.599 -> get rich it sounds vapid but it's a good
182.4 -> thing albeit a fickle one
184.48 -> comparing our modern global economy to
186.319 -> even the greatest empires throughout
187.84 -> history is like comparing a jet engine
190.08 -> to a donkey that's not hyperbole that's
192.4 -> how far ahead we are today but this is
194.959 -> actually the problem sure a jet engine
197.2 -> is faster and more powerful than a
198.8 -> donkey but it's less resilient one tiny
201.68 -> flaw in its incredibly complex network
203.68 -> of interdependent components could
205.12 -> render the whole thing useless what's
207.2 -> worse is that it moves so fast and flies
209.599 -> so high that even the slightest hiccup
211.36 -> becomes catastrophic most of us alive
213.84 -> today and especially those of us sitting
215.76 -> at home watching internet videos on our
217.36 -> smartphones would not know how to
218.879 -> survive very long if we didn't have food
220.799 -> within easy reach sometimes literally
223.12 -> delivered to our door but i'm getting
225.12 -> ahead of myself and probably starting to
226.64 -> sound like some kind of deranged
228.159 -> doomsday prepper screaming the end is
230 -> nice so let's break down exactly how
232.319 -> this mit study predicted that society
234.56 -> would collapse what measurable metrics
237.28 -> was mit looking at to determine that the
239.12 -> world was going in a good or a bad
241.36 -> direction what did these metrics tell us
243.92 -> about the way our society would
245.2 -> supposedly break down and finally is the
248.159 -> fact that this report is ahead of
249.84 -> schedule actually something to be
251.2 -> worried about or is this all just the
252.959 -> case of too much weight being given to
254.799 -> statistical correlations
257.28 -> this video is brought to you by
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263.84 -> australian a 12 minute course that i
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267.68 -> lexicon here's a quick preview
270.24 -> why does this australian tribe assign so
272.72 -> many nicknames to common nouns words
274.72 -> like brekkie chewie and stubby
277.199 -> if all of this sounds intimidating don't
279.759 -> worry together we will decipher the
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294 -> to my course as well as thousands of
296 -> other awesome courses again the link is
298.32 -> in the video description below
301.12 -> okay so the mit study specifically
303.28 -> titled the limits to growth set out to
305.68 -> primarily explore if our current usage
307.68 -> of the world's resources was sustainable
310 -> spoiler alert it wasn't the study was
312.56 -> actually one of the first economic
313.68 -> studies ever to use computers sporting
315.84 -> dynamic systematic models i am not a
318.8 -> computer scientist so there are plenty
320.72 -> of people who could explain what system
322.32 -> dynamics are far better than i could but
324.479 -> in brief it's basically a piece of
326.32 -> software that attempts to replicate the
327.84 -> workings of complex real-life systems by
330.479 -> replicating them in the software it
333.039 -> sounds very familiar to us today but
334.96 -> remember this was taking place back in
336.72 -> the 60s and the 70s where computers
339.039 -> looked like this and had about as much
340.72 -> processing power as your kettle despite
343.039 -> these limitations the mit team
344.88 -> eventually created world 3 which was a
348.16 -> computer model for the entire global
350.4 -> economy this piece of software modelled
352.72 -> everything from variable population
354.479 -> growth to industrial capacity it also
356.96 -> crucially modeled how everything would
358.479 -> interact with one another for example a
361.039 -> large population is naturally going to
362.88 -> require more resources more food more
365.44 -> water more homes more of everything but
368 -> a larger population will also naturally
370.08 -> lead to more innovation we have a much
372.479 -> better chance of finding a tesla da
374.479 -> vinci haber bosch or whittle with a
376.4 -> population of 8 billion than we do with
378.4 -> a population of two billion which is
380.56 -> where the world was a hundred years ago
382.639 -> it's a common joke amongst
383.68 -> macroeconomists that every change you
385.68 -> make to the economy changes at least
387.84 -> three other things sometimes we pave
390.24 -> over this issue by assuming ceteris
392 -> paribus or all other things been equal
394.08 -> in our models this economic assumption
396.4 -> is great for looking at cause effect in
398.479 -> isolation for example a soda tax
401.199 -> increases the price of and therefore
402.88 -> reduces the demand for sugary beverages
405.52 -> all other things being equal but this is
408 -> the real world nothing ever remains the
410.319 -> same just because it's easier to model
412.24 -> that way predicting the future is
414.479 -> extremely hard at the best of times and
416.8 -> almost impossible if you don't account
418.8 -> for almost every variable and that's
421.919 -> what world 3 attempted to do the world 3
424.8 -> program had systems for modeling
426.56 -> everything from birth rates to farming
428.639 -> technology the idea was all of these
430.96 -> variables were very important to
432.56 -> maintaining the modern lifestyles that
434.08 -> we enjoy today but because they interact
436.479 -> with one another they were prone to
438.639 -> feedback loops the idea of a feedback
441.199 -> loop actually comes from musical
442.8 -> performances if you have ever held a
444.8 -> microphone up to a loudspeaker you will
446.88 -> know the horrible high-pitched sound
448.4 -> that comes out of it that's because the
450.479 -> microphone is hearing a loud noise it is
452.8 -> then telling the speaker to amplify and
454.639 -> play that loud noise even louder only
456.96 -> for that new loud noise to be picked up
458.639 -> by the microphone all over again the
460.96 -> same kind of effect can happen in
462.639 -> economies for example declining birth
465.039 -> rates can lead to an ageing population
467.28 -> an aging population will put more
468.879 -> financial pressure on younger workers to
470.56 -> care for the elderly either directly by
472.4 -> caring for them at home or indirectly
474.08 -> through taxes to fund pension schemes
475.84 -> and aged care this financial pressure
477.68 -> will mean younger workers have less time
479.52 -> and less agreeable conditions to make a
481.36 -> family of their own and you are left
482.8 -> with further declining birth rates this
484.96 -> is actually a very important example as
487.039 -> it pertains to the mit study you see
490 -> while the study accounted for hundreds
491.44 -> of variables in its computer-generated
493.039 -> model of the global economy it was
494.96 -> actually only interested in tracking
497.199 -> five of them these were population
499.759 -> industrial output food production
501.759 -> available resources and pollution it's
504.8 -> worth remembering that this report was
506.4 -> published in 1972 before climate change
509.44 -> was more than a blip on the scientific
511.12 -> community's radar and certainly far from
512.959 -> being the widely recognized issue it is
514.959 -> today chances are if the paper was
517.279 -> replicated today it would also include
519.599 -> average global temperatures but it
522 -> wasn't so it didn't now despite that you
525.519 -> should be able to see that all of these
527.04 -> individual factors are very important to
529.04 -> how we live and work in the world today
531.2 -> but perhaps what is more important is
533.12 -> again how they end up interacting with
535.36 -> one another let's go back to the
536.88 -> economist safe space for a second and
538.64 -> assume that all other things are equal
540.959 -> outside of food and population now these
543.92 -> variables are obviously dependent on one
546 -> another if one moves the other will too
548.72 -> all other things been equal but what
550.959 -> sounds like a more concerning order of
553.44 -> events a declining population leading to
556.08 -> a decline in food production or a
558.56 -> decline in food production leading to a
560.959 -> decline in population yeah obviously two
564.48 -> very different scenarios right there
566.8 -> okay so now that we understand how to
568.959 -> interpret the data generated by this
570.399 -> report what did it actually say
573.44 -> well like good economists the
575.12 -> researchers kind of hedged their bets
577.519 -> predicting the future exactly is a
579.839 -> fool's errand they could have published
581.519 -> their paper one day before a design for
583.6 -> a commercially viable fusion reactor was
585.519 -> developed and researchers realized this
587.68 -> so what they did instead is they tweaked
590.08 -> the initial conditions and ran the
591.839 -> simulation over and over again in some
595.44 -> simulations they would assume that
596.959 -> innovation remains at a constant pace
598.72 -> and worker productivity continues to
600.399 -> improve at the rate it currently has
602 -> been in other simulations they would
603.839 -> assume that technological innovation
605.36 -> continues to compound on itself meaning
607.279 -> things like harvesting resources from
609.12 -> space or growing food in laboratories
611.04 -> becomes possible and then in other
612.72 -> simulations they would assume that
614.079 -> technological progress would slowly
615.68 -> plateau a quick side note is that a
618.24 -> technological plateau might not sound
620.399 -> very realistic to us today but that's
622.48 -> only because we have grown up in a time
624.32 -> of constant innovation moore's law is a
626.8 -> great example of this for the past five
628.959 -> decades computing power has roughly
630.88 -> doubled every two years but we are
633.2 -> starting to reach the physical limits of
634.959 -> how many transistors we can pack onto a
636.959 -> microchip promising technologies like
639.2 -> quantum computing may solve this issue
641.04 -> and let us continue to gain access to
642.959 -> even more computing power but then again
645.12 -> it may not and that's just one example a
648.399 -> lot of technological innovation these
650.079 -> days is just major companies finding new
652.32 -> and innovative ways for you to waste
653.839 -> your time consuming advertiser content
655.839 -> and yes i realize the irony that i am
657.92 -> part of the problem here but here you go
659.839 -> have an ad what a good little consumer
661.839 -> you are anyway technological innovation
664.56 -> was just one variable the researchers of
666.72 -> this report tweaked they also ran models
668.88 -> that assumed lower birth rates higher
670.64 -> birth rates higher rates of recycling
672.88 -> more resource discoveries greater levels
674.88 -> of global trade reduced levels of global
677.04 -> trade they basically tried to account
678.959 -> for every outcome that would be possible
681.519 -> with a realistic combination of factors
683.839 -> in this economic model they then
685.76 -> averaged out the trajectories of five
687.519 -> crucial factors to determine where
689.36 -> humanity would end up as you would
691.6 -> suspect from a range of models with
693.36 -> variables changed up every time they got
695.68 -> a range of different results but they
697.92 -> all sort of had one thing in common they
700.16 -> all showed a significant decline around
702.8 -> the year 2040. of course it's impossible
705.92 -> to address all of the thousands of
707.839 -> potential outcomes that were modeled but
710.16 -> the researchers really focused on a few
712.24 -> that fell well within the standard
714.16 -> deviation of all of these potential
716.8 -> outcomes the first and potentially most
719.279 -> optimistic outcome was called the
720.88 -> comprehensive technology scenario this
723.36 -> was a model where we continue to live
724.88 -> like we currently do today but
726.88 -> technology progressed fast enough to
728.48 -> ensure that our productive capacity was
730.16 -> able to keep up with the new people that
731.839 -> needed to be fed and housed and clothed
734.399 -> the model still predicts a significant
736.48 -> drop in food production brought about
738.079 -> primarily due to pollution of waterways
740.079 -> and the misuse of arable land but that
742.079 -> is addressed through technological
743.519 -> innovation the population does start to
745.92 -> plateau around the year 2040 but that's
748.48 -> due to the natural tendency of wealthier
750.8 -> more urban populations to have less
752.959 -> children rather than people starving to
755.04 -> death due to lack of food in this model
757.36 -> industrial output does peak and then
759.279 -> decline which would normally indicate
761.279 -> lower living standards but this is
763.519 -> almost entirely contradicted by the more
765.76 -> efficient use of the goods that we do
767.76 -> have if tomorrow technology got to such
770.32 -> a point where we had self-driving cars
772.48 -> then the need for individual car
774 -> ownership would be greatly reduced this
776.24 -> would likely lead to a fall in
777.76 -> industrial output but it's not like we
780 -> would be poorer because of this it's
781.92 -> just that suddenly a car that used to
783.44 -> service only one household can now be
785.68 -> efficiently shared amongst dozens this
788.399 -> is actually what the world economic
789.68 -> forum was talking about when they
791.04 -> famously said that you will own nothing
793.279 -> and be happy about it they either just
795.44 -> really don't understand how to
796.56 -> communicate with the general public or
798.24 -> they secretly enjoy making people angry
801.12 -> the more efficient use of resources
802.72 -> would also reduce pollution and ensure
804.72 -> that raw materials are never reduced to
807.12 -> nothing this wouldn't be a totally
809.519 -> terrible outcome and yeah we might not
811.36 -> continue to see the same exponential
813.2 -> growth in living standards that we have
814.32 -> seen over the past 100 years or so but
816.56 -> it also wouldn't be a societal collapse
818.88 -> either if you don't feel comfortable
820.88 -> relying on some new way of technological
822.88 -> innovation to save us all then the
824.399 -> researchers who publish this report have
826.399 -> an alternative the so-called stabilized
828.88 -> world scenario is what would happen if
830.8 -> the world just maintained its current
832.399 -> rate of innovation while also investing
834.48 -> heavily into things like renewable
836.079 -> energy sources and materials recycling
838.639 -> processes again this model was made
841.04 -> before climate change was considered a
842.48 -> factor so when we are talking about
844 -> recycling and renewables we are looking
845.92 -> at it purely through the lens of
847.6 -> resource depletion and local pollution
849.519 -> while totally disregarding other
851.12 -> externalities like carbon emissions this
853.6 -> stabilized world scenario looks very
855.44 -> similar in many ways to the
856.72 -> comprehensive technology outcome that we
858.399 -> explored earlier the main difference is
860.639 -> an almost voluntary reduction in
862.48 -> industrial output before it creates
864.24 -> problems like food shortages and
865.92 -> excessive pollution of all the models
868.56 -> based on all the different combinations
870.48 -> of variables this is what the
871.68 -> researchers identified as the most
873.839 -> optimistic again most optimistic barring
876.959 -> some crazy unforeseen technological
878.959 -> development that radically reshapes how
880.72 -> we run our economies this could happen
882.88 -> and hopefully it will but it's hard to
885.12 -> make concrete plans for technologies
887.04 -> that we can't conceive of yet outside of
889.36 -> maybe making a spiritual sacrifice to
891.199 -> daddy elon can't hurt anyway the bad
894.8 -> news is that while the original study in
896.56 -> 1972 thought this could be something
898.8 -> that we could realistically work towards
900.8 -> the timeline of all the captured
902.48 -> variables in this outcome has the least
904.639 -> closest fit to our current reality as
906.88 -> explored by the 2021 follow-up study
909.6 -> gaia herrington's study instead suggests
912 -> that the path that we are actually on
913.76 -> best represents what the 1972
915.839 -> researchers dubbed the business as usual
918.24 -> 2 scenario and that's not good this is a
922.399 -> model that highlights a very clear
924.839 -> collapse pollution continues to increase
927.12 -> exponentially and things like recycling
929.04 -> of common materials never become
930.639 -> economically viable or subsidized widely
932.88 -> enough industrial output does reach a
935.12 -> higher level than in all of the other
936.56 -> possible scenarios but that is about
938.72 -> where the good news ends a drop in food
941.04 -> production causes massively declining
942.88 -> birth rates in rich countries and
944.56 -> famines in poor countries the lack of
946.959 -> young workers reduces industrial output
948.88 -> which further hinders economic
950.24 -> prosperity easily accessible resources
952.639 -> also dwindle away which again further
954.56 -> reduces industrial output and economic
956.48 -> prosperity by all accounts this is what
958.72 -> we would consider a complete collapse of
961.36 -> society i said at the beginning of this
963.199 -> video that i would rather be a middle
964.8 -> class worker in today's world than a
966.72 -> king from anywhere beyond 150 years ago
969.519 -> if the business's usual model was to
971.6 -> play out then i would rather be a middle
973.6 -> class worker today than a king just 20
975.759 -> years in the future and that's a
977.36 -> genuinely scary thought so if you are
979.92 -> feeling a bit anxious like i was while
981.6 -> reading this study perhaps it's
983.12 -> important to address the criticisms of
985.12 -> this model a study that basically
987.199 -> amounts to someone screaming the world
989.04 -> is going to end is naturally going to be
990.88 -> met with some cynics and that was the
993.04 -> case for the limits to growth report
995.36 -> it's worth noting that a lot of these
997.199 -> criticisms have been proven wrong simply
999.44 -> by the fact that the data is tracking
1000.959 -> the predictions in the business as usual
1002.56 -> model with pretty frightening accuracy
1005.04 -> other critics point out that this study
1006.72 -> has a very pessimistic way of dealing
1008.72 -> with human innovation these critics
1010.639 -> conceded that yeah sure right now our
1012.959 -> rate of innovation might not be
1014.639 -> sufficient to avoid this kind of
1016 -> collapse but necessity is the mother of
1018.639 -> invention as soon as humanity's back is
1021.12 -> against the proverbial wall a lot more
1022.959 -> attention will be placed on researching
1024.72 -> and investing into technologies that
1026.24 -> could push us from the doomsday scenario
1028.24 -> of the business's usual model into the
1030.319 -> more palatable comprehensive technology
1032.24 -> scenario we can already start to see
1034.48 -> this taking place with a huge surge in
1036.319 -> renewable is becoming available in the
1038.4 -> public market certainly there are still
1040.4 -> some areas where we are lacking waste
1042.559 -> management been a huge one but we are
1044.64 -> much better than we were even a decade
1046.48 -> ago if you want me to tell you what i
1048.64 -> think will happen i'm sorry i'm just
1050.559 -> going to encourage you to read the two
1051.84 -> reports yourself i generally want to be
1054.48 -> optimistic about the future but i also
1056.4 -> realize that my opinion does not carry
1058.32 -> nearly as much weight as research
1059.679 -> published by a collection of 17 of the
1061.36 -> world's top economists and scientists
1063.84 -> research that has been vindicated by
1065.36 -> another very talented individual best
1067.52 -> case scenario this was all massively
1069.52 -> overblown and we could use this as an
1071.12 -> excuse to learn about the limits of
1072.4 -> creating systematic models to predict
1074 -> the future worst case scenario well i
1076.64 -> guess it's time to start learning how to
1078.08 -> forage for food in the wilderness which
1080.24 -> you can start right now with skillshare
1083.2 -> thanks to skillshare you can master
1084.88 -> virtually any skill you can think of
1087.039 -> before signing up i could barely draw a
1089.28 -> stickman figure but after watching a
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1092.64 -> illustration skills have improved
1094.32 -> dramatically if drawing isn't your thing
1096.559 -> skillshare offers a wide array of
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1100.48 -> cooking to coding you name it skillshare
1103.039 -> has you covered if you're interested in
1104.799 -> becoming an actor or actress but don't
1106.559 -> know how to pull off a convincing
1107.76 -> australian accent fear not because you
1110.08 -> can learn right now thanks to my mini
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1113.919 -> australian pause the video right now and
1116.16 -> be one of the first 1 000 viewers to get
1118.32 -> one month of free skillshare premium by
1120.48 -> signing up using the link in the
1121.84 -> description below as always thanks for
1124.24 -> watching mate bye

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVOTPAxrrP4