How close is nuclear fusion power?
How close is nuclear fusion power?
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How close is nuclear fusion to break-even? If you trust the headlines we’re getting close and the international project ITER is going to be the first to produce energy from fusion power. But not so fast. Scientists have, accidentally or deliberately, come to use a very misleading quantity to measure their progress. Unfortunately we’re much farther away from generating fusion power than the headlines suggest.
Phillip Ball’s article in the Guardian is here:
https://www.theguardian.com/environme…
The one in Science Magazine is here:
https://www.science.org/lookup/doi/10…
The document from the European Parliament Assessment is here: https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/10593…
The interview with Holtkamp is here:
https://ciaotest.cc.columbia.edu/olj/…
The numbers for JET quoted at around 9 mins can be found here: http://aei.pitt.edu/88591/1/1982.pdf
Walkden’s TED talk is here: • Delivering Fusion Energy | Nick Walkd…
Footage at 11 mins 14 seconds from Steven B. Krivit’s video “ITER, The Grand Illusion” • 2021 - ITER, The Grand Illusion: A Fo… which is worth watching in full length if you want to know more about the problem. You find more information on Krivit’s website: http://news.newenergytimes.net/iter-f…
Ivone Benfatto’s numbers about the ITER power consumption are here: https://cds.cern.ch/record/987554/fil…
My review of Turrell’s book is here: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/19/bo…
Many thanks to Jordi Busqué for helping with this video http://jordibusque.com/
You can support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/Sabine
0:00 Intro
0:35 Sponsor Message
1:33 Two different energy gains
4:44 The problem
7:28 How close are we to break even?
10:00 Scientists who spread the confusion
11:40 What are we to make of this?
#science #physics #nohype
Content
0.08 -> today i want to talk about nuclear
2.08 -> fusion
3.28 -> i've been struggling with this video for
5.759 -> some while
6.879 -> this is because i'm really supportive of
9.28 -> nuclear fusion research and development
12 -> however the potential benefits of
14.639 -> current research on nuclear fusion have
16.8 -> been incorrectly communicated for a long
19.119 -> time scientists are confusing the public
22.16 -> and policy makers in a way that makes
24.4 -> their research appear more promising
26.56 -> than it really is
28.8 -> and that's what we'll talk about today
35.2 -> before we talk about nuclear fusion let
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63.92 -> civilization and what energy has to do
66.56 -> with entropy you will also get to see a
69.04 -> nuclear fusion reactor and all of this
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91.439 -> now let's talk about nuclear fusion
93.92 -> there's a lot to say about nuclear
95.52 -> fusion but today i want to focus on its
97.92 -> most important aspect how much energy
100.72 -> goes into a fusion reactor and how much
103.36 -> comes out
104.88 -> scientists quantify this with the energy
107.68 -> gain that's the ratio of what comes out
110.479 -> over what goes in and is usually denoted
113.28 -> q
114.399 -> if the energy gain is larger than 1 you
116.799 -> create net energy
118.96 -> the point where q reaches 1 is called
122.079 -> break even the record for energy gain
124.799 -> was just recently broken you may have
127.119 -> seen the headlines an experiment at the
129.759 -> national ignition facility in the united
132.16 -> states reported they'd managed to get
134.56 -> out 70 percent of the energy they put in
138.48 -> so a queue of 0.7
141.36 -> the previous record was 0.67 it was set
145.04 -> in 1997 by the joined european taurus
148.319 -> jet for short the most prominent fusion
151.28 -> experiment that's currently being built
153.44 -> is ita
154.48 -> you will find plenty of articles
156.239 -> repeating that eta when completed will
159.04 -> produce 10 times as much energy as goes
161.68 -> in so a gain of 10.
164.48 -> here is an example from a 2019 article
167.599 -> in the guardian by philip ball who
169.92 -> writes
171.68 -> the eater project hopes to conduct its
174.08 -> first experimental runs in 2025 and
177.12 -> eventually to produce 500 megawatts of
180 -> power 10 times as much as is needed to
183.2 -> operate it
185.12 -> here is another example from science
187.04 -> magazine where you can read
189.12 -> eta is predicted to produce at least 500
192.319 -> megawatts of power from a 50 megawatt
195.2 -> input
196.159 -> so this looks like we're really close to
198.959 -> actually getting energy from fusion
200.72 -> right
201.68 -> no wrong remember that nuclear fusion is
204.879 -> the process by which the sun creates
207.04 -> power the sun forces nuclei into each
209.92 -> other with the gravitational force
211.76 -> created by its huge mass
214.08 -> we can't do this on earth so we have to
216.799 -> find some other way the currently most
219.36 -> widely used technology for nuclear
221.36 -> fusion is heating the fuel in strong
223.44 -> magnetic fields until it becomes a
225.519 -> plasma
226.799 -> the temperature that must be reached is
229.12 -> about 150 million kelvin
232.159 -> the other popular option is shooting a
234.48 -> fuel pallet with lasers
237.12 -> there are some other methods but they
239.2 -> haven't gotten very far in research and
241.12 -> development the confusion which you find
243.76 -> in pretty much all popular science
245.599 -> writing about nuclear fusion is that the
248.4 -> energy gain which they quote is that for
250.799 -> the energy that goes into the plasma and
253.439 -> comes out of the plasma in the technical
256.32 -> literature this quantity is normally not
259.519 -> just called q
261.12 -> but more specifically q plasma
264.32 -> this is not the ratio of the entire
267.28 -> energy that comes out of the fusion
269.04 -> reactor over that which goes into the
271.28 -> reactor which we can call q total
274.88 -> if you want to build a power plant and
277.84 -> that's what we're after in the end it's
280.24 -> the q total that matters
282.4 -> not the q plasma here's the problem
285.759 -> fusion reactors take a lot of energy to
288.24 -> run and most of that energy never goes
291.12 -> into the plasma
292.72 -> if you keep the plasma confined with the
294.8 -> magnetic field in a vacuum you need to
297.28 -> run giant magnets and cool them and
299.6 -> maintain that
300.96 -> and pumping a laser isn't energy
303.28 -> efficient either
304.96 -> these energies never appear in the
307.6 -> energy gain that is normally quoted the
310.72 -> q plasma also doesn't take into account
313.44 -> that if you want to operate a power
315.28 -> plant the heat that is created by the
317.759 -> plasma would still have to be converted
320.24 -> into electric energy and that can only
323.12 -> be done with a limited efficiency
325.6 -> optimistically maybe 50 percent
328.72 -> as a consequence the q total is much
332.08 -> lower than the q plasma if you didn't
335.039 -> know this you're not alone i didn't know
337.759 -> this until a few years ago either
340.16 -> how can such a confusion even happen i
342.96 -> mean
343.919 -> this isn't rocket science the total
346.16 -> energy that goes into the reactor is
348.32 -> more than the energy that goes into the
350.4 -> plasma
351.52 -> and yet
352.56 -> science writers and journalists
354.16 -> constantly get this wrong
356.319 -> they get the most basic fact wrong on a
359.36 -> matter that affects tens of billions of
362.16 -> research funding it's not like we're the
364.56 -> first to point out that this is a
366.479 -> problem i want to read you some words
368.96 -> from a 1988 report from the european
371.44 -> parliament more specifically from the
373.919 -> committee for scientific and
375.44 -> technological options assessment
378.16 -> they were tasked with establishing
380.4 -> criteria for the assessment of european
383.12 -> fusion research in 1988 they already
386.8 -> warned explicitly of this very
389.24 -> misunderstanding the use of the term
391.919 -> break-even as defining the present
394.24 -> program to achieve an energy balance in
396.479 -> the hydrogen deuterium plasma reaction
399.199 -> is open to misunderstanding in our view
402.24 -> break even should be used as descriptive
404.639 -> of the stage when there is an energy
406.88 -> break even in the system as a whole it
410 -> is this achievement which will open the
412.16 -> way for fusion power to be used for
414.479 -> electricity generation they then point
417.599 -> out the risk
419.68 -> in our view the correct scientific
421.599 -> criterion must dominate the program from
424.4 -> the earliest stages
426.479 -> the danger of not doing this could be
428.88 -> that the entire program is dedicated to
431.28 -> pursuing performance parameters which
433.68 -> are simply not relevant to the eventual
436.319 -> goal
437.52 -> the result of doing this could in the
440 -> very worst scenario be the enormous
442.56 -> waste of resources on a program that is
445.039 -> simply not scientifically feasible so
448 -> where are we today
449.759 -> well we're spending lots of money on
452.16 -> increasing q plasma instead of
454.24 -> increasing the relevant quantity q total
458.08 -> how big is the difference
460.319 -> let us look at eta as an example you
463.039 -> have seen in the earlier quotes about
465.12 -> eta that the energy input is normally
467.52 -> said to be 50 megawatts
469.68 -> but according to the head of the
471.599 -> electrical engineering division of the
473.52 -> eater project ivona benefatto eta will
476.879 -> consume about 440 megawatts while it
479.759 -> produces fusion power
481.84 -> that gives us an estimate for the total
484.16 -> energy that goes in
486.56 -> though
487.52 -> that is misleading already because 120
490.639 -> of those 440 megawatts are consumed
493.68 -> whether or not there's any plasma in the
496 -> reactor
497.039 -> so using this number assumes the thing
499.84 -> would be running permanently
501.919 -> but okay let's leave this aside the plan
505.199 -> is that eater will generate 500
507.919 -> megawatts of fusion power in heat
510.8 -> if we assume a 50 efficiency for
513.2 -> converting this heat into electricity
515.76 -> eta will produce about 250 megawatts of
518.8 -> electric power
520.719 -> that gives us acute total of about 0.57
525.68 -> that's less than a tenth of the normally
528.08 -> stated q plasma of 10.
530.32 -> even optimistically eta will still
532.32 -> consume roughly twice the power it
534.48 -> generates
536.24 -> what's with the earlier claim of the
538.08 -> queue of 0.67 for the jet experiment
541.6 -> same thing
542.72 -> if you look at the total energy jet
545.04 -> consumed more than 700 megawatts of
547.6 -> electricity to get its 16 megawatts of
550.48 -> fusion power that's heat not electric
553.92 -> so if you again assume 50 efficiency in
556.8 -> the heat to electricity conversion you
559.2 -> get acute total of about 0.0
562.8 -> and not the claimed 0.67
566.16 -> and those recent headlines about the nif
568.959 -> success same thing again it's the q
571.6 -> plasma that is 0.7
574.08 -> that's calculated with the energy that
576.16 -> the laser delivers to the plasma
578.88 -> but how much energy do you need to fire
581.12 -> the laser
582.399 -> i don't know for sure but nif is a
584.72 -> fairly old facility so a rough estimate
587.04 -> would be 100 times as much
589.6 -> if they'd upgrade their lasers maybe 10
592 -> times as much
593.44 -> either way the q total for this
595.44 -> experiment is almost certainly well
597.76 -> below 0.1 of course the people who work
601.36 -> on this some of them physicists some of
603.6 -> them human know this distinction
606.079 -> perfectly well
607.6 -> but i can't shake off the feeling they
609.92 -> quite like the confusion between the two
612.16 -> cues
613.279 -> here is for example a quote from hult
615.279 -> camp who at the time was the project
617.839 -> construction leader of ito
619.92 -> he said in an interview in 2006
623.519 -> eta will be the first fusion reactor to
626.16 -> create more energy than it uses
628.959 -> scientists measure this in terms of a
631.2 -> simple factor they call it q
633.839 -> if eta meets all the scientific
635.839 -> objectives it will create 10 times more
638.16 -> energy than it is supplied with
640.64 -> here is nick walkdown from jet in a ted
643.519 -> talk referring to eta eater will produce
646.88 -> 10 times the power out from fusion
649.36 -> energy than we put into the machine now
651.44 -> jet holds the record for fusion power um
653.6 -> in 1997 it got 65 of the power out that
657.36 -> we put in not one not 10 but still
660.16 -> getting close but okay you may say no
662.88 -> one expects accuracy in a ted talk
666.079 -> then listen to it director general dr
668.88 -> bijou speaking to the house of
670.88 -> representatives in april 2016. and i
674.24 -> look forward to learning more about the
675.44 -> progress that eder
676.959 -> has made under dr bigo's leadership
680.32 -> to address previously identified
682.079 -> management deficiencies and to establish
684.56 -> a more reliable path forward for the
686.839 -> project okay the heater will have been
689.519 -> delivered is a okay full demonstration
691.76 -> that we could have okay
693.6 -> 500 megawatt coming out of the 50 mega
696.959 -> what we are
698.16 -> we will
699.6 -> put in what are we to make of all this
702.64 -> nuclear fusion power is a worthy
705.2 -> research project it could have a huge
708 -> payoff for the future of our
709.6 -> civilization
711.12 -> but we need to be smart about just what
713.519 -> research to invest into because we have
715.839 -> limited resources
717.839 -> for this it is super important that we
720.72 -> focus on the relevant question
723.04 -> will it output energy into the grid
725.92 -> there seem to be a lot of people in
728 -> fusion research who want you to remain
730.399 -> confused about just what the total
733.12 -> energy gain is
734.56 -> i only recently read a new book about
736.72 -> nuclear fusion the star builders which
739.839 -> does the same thing again only briefly
742.639 -> mentions the total energy gain and never
745.519 -> gives you a number this misinformation
748.639 -> has to stop if you come across any
751.12 -> popular science article or interview or
753.36 -> video that does not clearly spell out
756 -> what the total energy gain is
758.399 -> please call them out on it
760.88 -> thanks for watching see you next week
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJ4W1g-6JiY