How NATO Would Respond to a Nuclear Strike

How NATO Would Respond to a Nuclear Strike

How NATO Would Respond to a Nuclear Strike

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What’s NATO’s plan in case of a nuclear attack? Check out today’s epic new video to find out how the allied forces of NATO would respond to a nuclear attack against any of the countries protected by NATO.

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Content

0.35 -> The world wakes up to horrifying news.
2.55 -> A mushroom cloud rising over a Ukrainian city, as Putin escalates by pulling the nuclear
7.77 -> trigger for the first time since 1945.
10.769 -> The forces of NATO gather to discuss their next move.
13.63 -> This escalation, and the associated loss of life can’t be tolerated - but how should
18.23 -> they respond?
19.289 -> What retaliation is in order - and how will NATO avoid World War 3?
23.17 -> There are several options, and most will rely heavily on the circumstances surrounding the
27.32 -> attack.
28.32 -> But this kind of attack couldn’t go unanswered.
29.32 -> This response would be more likely in the event of Putin using tactical nuclear weapons
31.55 -> in a region like Kherson or the Donbas, near the Russian border.
34.28 -> While the immediate loss of life would be terrible and radioactive contamination in
38.64 -> the area could impact Ukraine for years to come, a tactical nuclear weapon isn’t likely
45.04 -> to cause the same kind of devastation that we saw in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and the
50.35 -> regional fallout is only likely to hit Ukraine - and possibly Russia, which is the risk of
56.44 -> nuking someone on your border.
60.149 -> But this kind of attack couldn’t go unanswered.
62.69 -> This response would be more likely in the event of Putin using tactical nuclear weapons
66.5 -> in a region like Kherson or the Donbas, near the Russian border.
70.25 -> While the immediate loss of life would be terrible and radioactive contamination in
74.04 -> the area could impact Ukraine for years to come, a tactical nuclear weapon isn’t likely
78.68 -> to cause the same kind of devastation that we saw in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and the
83.549 -> regional fallout is only likely to hit Ukraine - and possibly Russia, which is the risk of
88.55 -> nuking someone on your border.
90.549 -> So NATO might not feel compelled to enter the fray, but they would definitely respond.
95.18 -> The first step would be to consult with Ukraine and its leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
99.14 -> The stiff-backed Ukrainian President has been steadfast in not giving up an inch of his
103.4 -> territory, no matter what it costs.
105.74 -> A nuclear attack might change that calculus - but probably not too much.
110.219 -> After all, the stakes are still the same - Ukraine knows that they either win, or become a Russian
114.59 -> puppet state subject to harsh reprisals for their resistance.
117.469 -> It’s a scary prospect for Ukraine, but before we go any further, we wanted to thank the
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173.18 -> Now, back to Ukraine.
174.18 -> Ukraine knows that they either win, or become a Russian puppet state subject to harsh reprisals
175.18 -> for their resistance.
176.18 -> So while the price would be high, they’re likely to continue fighting - and they’re
177.849 -> going to want whatever they can get in the way of aid from NATO.
181.39 -> If the purse strings were getting a bit tight before, they’re likely to loosen now as
185.25 -> outrage over Putin’s nuclear attack spreads.
187.94 -> More HIMARS rocket systems and other high-tech tools would flow into Ukraine, and any restrictions
192.739 -> on their use might be loosened as Ukraine strikes back at Russia.
196.46 -> Even hesitant allies like Israel and India, which have complex relations with Russia,
200.93 -> might be compelled to offer military aid.
203.319 -> And some items on the wish list might become available.
206.28 -> Ukraine has made major requests of world governments, and they’ve been turned down occasionally.
210.41 -> Some countries worry that providing high-level weapons could be considered an act of war
213.95 -> by Russia, but if Putin goes too far, those objections may be overruled.
218.189 -> One example is Israel’s Iron Dome system, which is crucial in fending off Hamas rocket
222.53 -> fire.
223.53 -> This may not be something that can be transferred easily - the system is not designed to take
226.799 -> on powerful Russian rockets - but Israel may provide Ukraine with key components that can
231.42 -> be adapted.
232.459 -> The same goes for the Army Tactical Missile System, a powerful surface-to-surface missile
236.709 -> that would give Ukraine long-range striking capabilities.
239.599 -> The US has held off on this one for fear that Ukraine could hit Russian cities, but it may
244.29 -> be decided that the gloves are off.
246.39 -> And for Russia, the screws would be tightened.
248.599 -> A nuclear attack would be a clear indication from Putin that he’s not going to back down
252.86 -> and will do everything to win the war.
254.91 -> And NATO would escalate right back.
257.019 -> Right now, the primary tool for the world against Russia has been economic sanctions
260.519 -> - cutting Russia off from much of the global economy.
262.949 -> However, certain key things were exempted.
265.61 -> Russia isn’t banned from importing or exporting essential supplies, and many companies have
269.919 -> chosen to continue doing business with them.
272.33 -> That could change, as the world decides to try to starve Putin out.
275.61 -> However, Russia still has some key allies - including Iran, which gleefully provides
280.11 -> Russia with drones; and China, which has provided Russia with key supplies while being fairly
284.8 -> ambivalent on the Ukraine war.
286.479 -> And it may be time to target those allies.
289.139 -> Russia has only a few allies left besides those two, many of which like Syria and Venezuela
294.1 -> don’t have many resources.
295.8 -> Even Russia’s usual ally Pakistan supports Ukraine’s sovereignty and has been mostly
300.259 -> staying neutral in the recent conflict.
302.1 -> The US and NATO could turn up the heat on Russia’s allies by imposing a secondary
306.37 -> embargo on them - cutting off trade as long as they’re providing military aid to Russia
310.46 -> against Ukraine.
311.83 -> While the US has limited trade at best with Iran, Venezuela, and Syria, the back-and-forth
316.229 -> between the US and China is a huge part of both economies.
319.759 -> Turning off that tap would cause no small amount of supply chain issues in the US- but
324.33 -> it might also cause China enough pain that they would decide it’s not worth it to keep
328.139 -> supplying Russia with tools to fight against Ukraine.
330.729 -> And there are other tools that NATO can use against Russia.
333.759 -> For one thing, Russia is short of one key resources needed to win a war - manpower.
337.35 -> They’ve lost a massive number of soldiers in Ukraine, far more than Ukraine has, and
342.389 -> a recent attempt at a draft led to countless untrained young men being thrown into combat
347.539 -> as glorified cannon fodder - often with outdated weapons and little hope to survive.
352.76 -> This has turned many people in Russia against Putin - and that could be an opening for Ukraine
357.08 -> and its allies.
358.139 -> If Ukraine and NATO offered refuge to any soldier defecting from Putin, it could massively
362.9 -> unbalance Putin’s army and lead to a flood to the border.
366.21 -> While Putin could undoubtedly slam the doors shut and put down protests using brute force
370.52 -> - like he always does - it’s a cardinal truth that any leader who is shooting at his
374.819 -> own people is not in good shape.
377.099 -> Finally, the international community might have its say.
380.139 -> The United Nations could also be used to damage Russia through the Security Council.
383.97 -> There, any resolution can be vetoed by one of five permanent members - the United States,
389.03 -> United Kingdom, France, China…and Russia.
392.1 -> That has kept any UN sanctions from being passed against Russia.
395.509 -> Would it be possible to kick Russia off the Security Council?
397.93 -> It’s not clear.
399.039 -> A two-thirds majority vote of the General Assembly can expel a member from the United
402.88 -> Nations - but bylaws may indicate that those resolutions have to pass through the Security
407.889 -> Council first.
408.94 -> Still, it would be another diplomatic black eye for Russia whether it worked or not.
413.19 -> But this strategy has its limits.
415.04 -> The goal of escalating sanctions and isolation on Russia is to push Putin past his breaking
419.78 -> point and lead him to either pull out of Ukraine - or be removed by his own people.
424 -> But there’s a second possibility - that he reaches the point of no return and decides
427.82 -> to take everyone with him.
429.3 -> At a certain point, Putin might just decide that sanctions are an act of war and that
432.699 -> he’s justified in opening fire on NATO weapons shipments or worse.
436.01 -> At which point, the larger war that sanctions were trying to avoid has found the country
440.5 -> anyway - and NATO might be caught unprepared as World War 3 kicks off.
445.039 -> This is why some forces in NATO are arguing for a stronger potential response.
449.86 -> Option Two - NATO Gets Involved
451.849 -> When asked in October about the possibility, a NATO official said that a nuclear strike
456.349 -> would likely prompt a physical response from the organization.
459.55 -> This could mean any number of things, but it’s likely that this would come into play
462.83 -> if Russia used higher-yield nuclear bombs against major Ukrainian cities, or if this
467.6 -> became a regular occurance.
469.509 -> Then the cost of letting this go on might be too high to pay - and NATO would decide
473.27 -> it’s time to provide direct support to Ukraine rather than simply supplies.
477.229 -> But what would this look like?
478.639 -> The initial goal would be to keep this from devolving into a full war between NATO and
482.54 -> Russia - if that’s possible.
484.83 -> That would mean trying to avoid engaging Russian troops directly, but providing military support
488.9 -> to Ukraine.
489.9 -> This wouldn’t be a full mobilization like what’s happening in Russia - instead, elite
493.33 -> teams of NATO forces and weapons would be placed either on Ukraine’s border or within
497.71 -> it to deter future Russian aggression.
500.37 -> This would attempt to push Putin into a corner and make his generals worried that confronting
504.62 -> NATO directly would lead to the end of the Russian regime.
507.43 -> But this can backfire - and Putin isn’t the type to back down.
511.009 -> Which is why another tactic’s time may have come.
513.409 -> In the opening days of the war, there was a call for a no-fly zone over Ukraine, but
517.12 -> this was turned down for one simple reason - it’s not what it sounds like!
521.25 -> Many of the proponents made it sound like the US and NATO could magically prevent Russian
525.05 -> planes from entering Ukrainian airspace, but what it would actually do is places NATO planes
529.72 -> in Ukrainian airspace to shoot down any foreign planes that entered.
533.53 -> At this point, it would be a shooting war over Ukrainian territory in what’s essentially
537.839 -> a neutral zone - or at least we classify it as a neutral zone.
541.56 -> Because Russia still claims Ukraine as part of its territory.
544.42 -> And that once again stands the risk of escalation.
547.31 -> The goal is to provide enough military support to prevent further nuclear attacks by Putin
551.829 -> and protect Ukraine without actually triggering a larger war between superpowers.
556.38 -> The problem with that strategy is that it relies entirely on Putin’s discretion, and
560.589 -> his definition of the facts on the ground may differ radically.
563.79 -> Remember, this is a guy who sent a bunch of troops into occupied regions with guns, pointed
568.37 -> those guns at voters while they voted on whether to be annexed by Russia, and then proudly
573.029 -> displayed the results that all the people voted to join Russia at gunpoint.
577.38 -> Threading the needle with him is not easy.
580.04 -> So what could NATO do to militarily defend Ukraine without triggering a larger conflict?
584.899 -> The key to remember is that this would primarily be a defensive conflict.
588.45 -> NATO would likely limit itself to trying to intercept and turn back Russian planes heading
592.529 -> toward cities, shooting down Russian missiles before they hit their target, and protecting
596.839 -> vital infrastructure like power grids and nuclear plants.
599.89 -> While conflict with Russian troops would be inevitable, NATO wouldn’t initiate it.
604.06 -> It would also likely dedicate itself to protecting the bulk of Ukraine, particularly major cities
608.45 -> like Odessa, Kyiv, and Lviv - as opposed to the contested areas like Crimea and the Donbas.
614.7 -> While Ukraine hasn’t ceded any of those areas, they’re currently partially or totally
618.41 -> occupied by Russia - and Russia considers them part of Russia, so engaging Russian planes
623.52 -> there could be considered an act of war.
625.8 -> Therefore those regions would likely be left to Ukrainian forces to defend.
629.43 -> But NATO could help in another key area.
631.85 -> One of Russia’s tactics has been to try to control the sea access to Ukraine, particularly
636.05 -> access to the Black Sea.
637.65 -> This is a key shipping lane for grain and other resources, and Putin attempting to blockade
641.97 -> it put the global food supply in jeopardy.
644.63 -> While Putin backed down recently when Turkey challenged the blockade, it’s a constant
648.75 -> threat - and NATO forces enforcing freedom of movement on Ukraine’s maritime border
652.92 -> might give him pause before interfering with commerce again.
656.51 -> In some ways, NATO’s role in this option would be less to declare war on Russia and
660.23 -> more to attempt to enforce a stable status quo in the region.
663.61 -> Would this strategy work?
664.92 -> It depends heavily on multiple factors.
667.16 -> For one thing, it requires that Putin behave like a rational actor - which is iffy, if
671.19 -> not impossible.
672.32 -> If he views any presence by NATO in Ukraine as an attack, nothing can stop him from escalating.
677.04 -> However, if he allows it to become a war of attrition, NATO’s presence could become
680.839 -> a way to shore up Ukraine’s defenses long-term.
682.91 -> NATO would likely focus on providing weapons and the troops to operate them rather than
687.49 -> any heavy-duty troop infusion for a number of reasons.
690.399 -> For one thing, Ukraine isn’t hungry for troops.
692.74 -> Zelenskyy instituted a draft for fighting-age men not long after the war began, and most
697.26 -> Ukrainians are fiercely patriotic and ready to fight.
700.2 -> You might even find a few brave grandmas holding their rifles in the cities.
703.97 -> Second, Ukraine has lost fewer soldiers than Russia - and every Ukrainian soldier knows
707.95 -> what they’re fighting for.
709.329 -> But this strategy has other benefits too.
711.41 -> A limited NATO presence in Ukraine might do wonders to protect the country’s infrastructure
715.39 -> during the war.
716.39 -> It would also serve as a deterrent to the Belarusian government, whose border is close
720.32 -> to Kyiv.
721.32 -> Their leader Aleksandr Lukashenko is the only other dictator in Europe besides Putin, and
725.91 -> is a close ally of Russia - to the point of basically being a puppet state.
729.86 -> There have been persistent rumors that Belarus may attempt to invade and make a move on Kyiv
734.829 -> while Russia concentrates on the east.
736.89 -> NATO being present might prevent that, as Belarus is far less capable militarily than
741.68 -> Russia.
742.68 -> But this strategy comes at a high risk.
744.36 -> The goal is to “escalate to de-escalate”, by adding troops and weapons designed to deter
748.99 -> Putin and his allies.
750.61 -> But that depends entirely on his discretion, and it’s impossible to know exactly what
755.01 -> Putin would consider a provocation worthy of war and what he wouldn’t.
758.74 -> It would turn every encounter with Russian troops into a Sword of Damocles, with Putin
762.59 -> holding his finger over the nuclear button.
764.889 -> When the first challenger to a no-fly zone over certain parts of Ukraine comes streaming
769.05 -> through, will the NATO forces in charge have the guts to pull the trigger and blow them
773.12 -> out of the sky?
774.24 -> And what would come next?
775.61 -> Some say that if you’re going to escalate, you might as well go all the way.
779.09 -> Option 3 - All-Out War
780.46 -> It’s the worst-case scenario - Putin not only uses a nuclear weapon, but he targets
785.06 -> one of Ukraine’s major cities with a high-yield weapon.
788.18 -> Tens of thousands are killed immediately, with countless more to come due to radiation
791.96 -> burns and poisoning.
793.12 -> The city is essentially destroyed, the country is thrown into chaos, and it’s initially
797.579 -> not even clear if Ukraine’s government has survived.
798.88 -> It was a clear attempt at a decapitation strike on a foreign country - and it becomes clear
804.149 -> it failed once Zelenskyy is able to get in touch with NATO leaders from a secure location.
808.18 -> And the horror is just beginning.
810.62 -> The fallout is spreading, and some of it has hit NATO allies, sickening people outside
814.71 -> of Ukraine.
815.71 -> It’s now an international crisis - and Putin responds by threatening direct hits on NATO
819.75 -> if there is any retaliation.
821.269 -> It’s clear that the war is escalating - the only question is, how to escalate it and how
825.4 -> far to go?
826.62 -> The first stage would likely be similar to the previous plan, sending in NATO weaponry
830.55 -> and a small number of troops to shore up the country’s defenses - but it wouldn’t stop
834.529 -> there.
835.529 -> This time, all options are on the table.
837.11 -> And in this scenario, the target is Russia itself.
839.89 -> NATO needs to move carefully here, because one wrong move could potentially trigger World
843.72 -> War 3.
844.72 -> Russia has more nuclear weapons than any country in the world, and no one is sure how many
848.31 -> of them work.
849.459 -> While its smaller tactical nukes are newer and more likely to work, its nuclear missiles
853.33 -> date back to the Cold War and no one is sure how many of them are still operational.
857.54 -> A Russian retaliation could fizzle - or it could lead to a world on nuclear fire and
862.41 -> the end of human civilization.
864.26 -> So a direct attack on Russia is highly unlikely, even in retaliation to a major nuclear attack.
869.43 -> So what’s the next move?
870.92 -> It may come back to another famous hunt for a wanted scourge of humanity - Osama Bin Laden.
875.98 -> The terror leader was notoriously hard to find and moved between safe houses, and the
879.83 -> US was very careful not to accidentally declare war on an ally in trying to find him.
884.45 -> The odds are Putin has probably done the same, going to one of his safehouse bunkers far
887.98 -> away from the most dangerous places in the event of NATO retaliation.
891.55 -> So any retaliatory attack targeting him would need to be planned very carefully - because
895.82 -> the odds are, NATO only gets one shot to get it right.
898.889 -> But targeting Putin doesn’t put an end to the crisis.
901.5 -> Many of Putin’s key lieutenants are just as militant as him - with some, like Chechen
905.649 -> leader Ramzan Kadyrov, being even more extreme.
909.14 -> Taking out Putin without taking measures for the future of Russia might lead to things
912.959 -> getting worse, as a new Russian leader vows to take revenge for the assassination and
917.49 -> escalates the war.
918.83 -> So during the period that NATO was trying to locate Putin’s safehouse, they might
921.92 -> also want to recruit a key player in the Russian government seen as more reasonable to potentially
926.8 -> take over in the aftermath.
928.53 -> While reasonable people in the Russian government are few and far between, a potential candidate
933.02 -> might be Sergei Shoigu, the current Minister of Defence.
936.31 -> While he started out as a hard-liner, he fell out of favor with Putin due to his pragmatic
940.5 -> approach.
941.5 -> He could potentially be Russia’s Erwin Rommel - the Nazi General thought of as Hitler’s
945.769 -> best military mind who was later involved in an assassination plot against the mad dictator.
950.73 -> So what would a NATO attack on Russia after a Russian nuclear attack look like?
955.579 -> In contrast to the first two World Wars, it wouldn’t be a prolonged affair.
958.76 -> In fact, it might be over before anyone realizes it’s happening - and either it would work,
963.139 -> or it would provoke a massive shooting war that could envelop multiple continents.
967.399 -> Once Putin realizes he’s under attack, he would likely retaliate quickly, so he would
971.449 -> likely be target #1.
973.37 -> Once the intelligence is secure and NATO knows where he is, they would likely hit his safehouse
977.54 -> with everything they have.
979.13 -> This could be conventional weapons, but it’s likely they would use low-yield tactical nuclear
983.95 -> weapons with earth-penetrating capability - like the B61-12 Gravity Bomb, the latest
989.02 -> manifestation of a weapon that has served the US well since the Cold War.
992.75 -> And from there, things would move fast.
995 -> Once the hit on the bunker has been successful, NATO forces would likely move on to taking
998.96 -> out other high-level targets.
1000.4 -> This might include major Russian weapons outposts that could be used to attack Ukraine, as well
1004.959 -> as potential Russian leaders who would be a threat to Shoigu in the ensuing power struggle.
1009.62 -> But NATO would likely not attempt to occupy Russia or attack major cities like Moscow.
1014.089 -> A country like Russia can’t be beaten without a long, bloody war - just ask anyone who tried
1019.06 -> to invade them in Winter!
1020.639 -> The goal would be to eliminate the current threat.
1023.079 -> But now comes the hard part - diplomacy.
1026.059 -> Taking out Putin would not resolve the larger conflict, and it wouldn’t undo the bad blood
1030.66 -> that’s been created.
1031.679 -> But with new Russian leadership, it would be the ideal time to bring everyone to the
1035.48 -> table.
1036.48 -> Zelenskyy would likely be coming in filled with anger and with big demands - such as
1039.449 -> the removal of Russian forces from all Ukrainian territory including Crimea, and for reparations
1044.88 -> for the damage caused by the war.
1046.52 -> But Russia, which considers Crimea an essential part of its territory, would be unlikely to
1050.83 -> agree even under pressure.
1052.35 -> Likewise, they would be unlikely to admit fault and offer repayment.
1055.46 -> It may fall to the rest of the world to provide the aid Ukraine needs, and hard-boiled negotiations
1060.1 -> may wind up providing a solution where Russia withdraws from everything but Crimea - not
1064.73 -> an ideal solution for anyone, but mostly acceptable to everyone.
1068.96 -> This is the good ending - but things could go wrong in so many ways.
1072.83 -> For one thing, Russia is known for responding harshly to any provocation, and if the initial
1077.08 -> strike falls short, it would likely trigger massive retaliation.
1080.54 -> The same goes if NATO’s choice of a replacement leader is unable to consolidate support and
1084.87 -> a hard-liner takes control.
1086.86 -> Either scenario could pull the US into a larger war with no chance for de-escalation - and
1091.21 -> everything would be downhill from here.
1093.2 -> Likewise, negotiations could break down and the war could resume - with NATO now involved
1097.54 -> whether it wants to be or not.
1099.24 -> Of course, there is another option…but no one’s going to like it.
1102.78 -> Option Four - Retreat!
1104.7 -> Nuclear bombs are terrifying.
1105.78 -> There’s a reason no one has pulled the trigger since 1945 - the threat of escalation and
1110.179 -> mutually assured destruction has kept even the angriest world leaders at bay.
1114.159 -> So it’s entirely possible that if Putin hits Ukraine with a nuclear weapon, the tide
1118.37 -> of world opinion would change.
1120.45 -> Even now, many figures are calling for negotiations and disengagement, and this mindset would
1124.65 -> likely gain popularity.
1126.21 -> So it’s possible more dovish figures would gain power in NATO governments, aid to Ukraine
1130.74 -> would dry up, and Putin’s gambit to scare the world into silence would succeed.
1135.049 -> But would this be the end of the conflict?
1136.89 -> In a word…not likely.
1139.01 -> Putin has long been a maximalist, lamenting the glory days of the Soviet Union and wanting
1143.17 -> to recapture it.
1144.4 -> If he gets away with conquering Ukraine, he likely wouldn’t stop there.
1147.89 -> Russian doctrine states that no NATO nation is allowed to be directly on Russia’s borders
1151.77 -> - and all the countries that border Ukraine would now be violating that, including Poland.
1156.73 -> He might also set his sights on the central Asian nations like Kazakhstan that gained
1160.78 -> their independence in the early 1990s, none of which are covered by NATO protection.
1165.21 -> Vladimir Putin would have learned - and taught the world - that old-school conquest still
1169.11 -> works in the modern day.
1170.679 -> Would he stop with Ukraine or try to fulfil his dreams of recreating the Soviet Union?
1175.059 -> And would a future Russian leader follow suit?
1177.19 -> At the moment, NATO watches, waits - and prepares its plan if the worst happens.
1182.24 -> Want to know more about this nightmare scenario?
1184.429 -> Check out “Could Russia Win a War Against NATO?” or watch “This Will Happen If the
1188.49 -> US Pulls Out of NATO” for another crisis scenario.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDEG3ebH-ok