Historian Predicts How Russia's War in Ukraine Will End

Historian Predicts How Russia's War in Ukraine Will End

Historian Predicts How Russia's War in Ukraine Will End

The world is watching and wondering how the war between Russia and Ukraine will end. But what does history have to say about it? Check out today’s epic new video that takes a look at a prediction from the past that could reveal how this conflict will come to a final ending.

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Content

0.12 -> As the war in Ukraine enters its second year, the conflict remains in an uncertain place
4.23 -> - for both parties.
5.97 -> In Russia, Vladimir Putin continues to create propaganda for his domestic audience, boasting
10.52 -> that victory is only a short time away - and all the sacrifices are worth it.
14.969 -> He threatens NATO, encroaches on Moldova, and vows to respond to provocations with overwhelming
20.32 -> force.
21.32 -> All the while, Russia remains under devastating economic sanctions, sees its military supplies
25.38 -> dwindling, and finds it harder and harder to get new recruits for the war - with its
29.099 -> citizens dodging the draft and its private armies increasingly vocal about the state
33.09 -> of the war.
34.09 -> In Ukraine, emotions are higher - despite the rough state of the country.
37.43 -> The army is highly motivated, President Voldomyr Zelenskyy has kept the country’s faith alive,
42.16 -> and the rest of the world has rallied to the country’s defense - but Russia still occupies
45.82 -> a large portion of eastern Ukraine.
48.16 -> The AFU continues to push back, even retaking territory, but progress has been slow - and
53.12 -> is heavily dependent on western support.
55.78 -> NATO and the United States in particular have kept Ukraine well-stocked with top-of-the-line
60.18 -> military weapons, and there is no guarantee that will last forever - especially with elections
64.68 -> in many key allies coming up.
67.049 -> Which leads many people to wonder - how will the war end?
70.17 -> That’s what historian Hein Goemans, a specialist in war and territorial disputes, sat down
74.659 -> to discuss on CNN.
76.56 -> The University of Rochester Professor discussed the possible end points of the war, how likely
80.95 -> they were - and how hard it would be to get any end to the conflict.
84.75 -> Long story short - don’t expect victory parades anytime soon.
88.87 -> Goemans has been analyzing wars for decades, and one conclusion he came to is that many
92.96 -> wars don’t quite end.
94.93 -> The most famous war in history, World War II, was one of the only ones that ended with
99.2 -> decisive blows finishing off one of the two sides, followed by an unconditional surrender.
104.52 -> The same went for the US Civil War, but that was an atypical situation given that one of
108.56 -> the two sides wasn’t a fully formed country.
110.659 -> In most cases, both sides will do anything they can to avoid a full loss, and is more
114.53 -> likely to shift tactics, make a tactical retreat, or just keep the war going on a lower boil
119.95 -> indefinitely.
121.13 -> But not every side has a choice.
122.549 -> Let’s look at what it would take for one of the two sides in Ukraine vs. Russia to
126.53 -> actually win, starting with the outcome that most people thought was the most likely at
130.43 -> the start of the war - a Russian victory.
132.8 -> This was entirely possible in the opening days of the war, as Russia sought to encircle
136.64 -> and conquer the capitol of Kyiv, capture Zelenskyy or drive him into exile, and take control
141.28 -> of the Ukrainian government within weeks - before NATO could form a concrete response.
146.2 -> It almost happened - a massive advance of Russian troops from Belarus saw Kyiv nearly
150.8 -> captured, but Ukraine pulled off a risky move by blowing a dam to flood Russian pontoon
155.28 -> bridges, denying the Russians one of their access points.
157.84 -> The war settled into a game of attrition - one that Ukraine has been winning thanks to NATO
162.23 -> backing.
163.23 -> But Putin hasn’t given up.
164.51 -> Russia has pulled off several surges since the early days of the war, sending large numbers
168.06 -> of troops into Ukraine - to mixed effect.
170.86 -> While they’ve taken some cities like the mining towns of Soledar, most are bombed-out
174.67 -> areas in eastern Ukraine that are in the area Russia already controls.
179.2 -> Russia also simply doesn’t have the resources - either militarily or in terms of manpower
183.47 -> - to overrun Ukraine anymore.
185.41 -> That means that for Russia to pull off a total victory in the war like Putin is promising,
189.48 -> some major things need to change on the ground.
191.97 -> But all of these options have some serious problems.
195.1 -> Since the start of the war, Putin has been threatening to use nukes if NATO doesn’t
198.44 -> back off and let him have Ukraine.
200.18 -> These threats are designed to scare the more dovish governments in the alliance into disengaging,
204.08 -> but it doesn’t seem to be working for several reasons.
206.7 -> For one thing, no one thinks Putin - or more likely, his generals - are foolish enough
210.459 -> to attack NATO directly, so any nuclear attacks would likely be tactical and aimed at Ukraine.
216.18 -> This would only harden the resolve of Ukraine’s allies.
218.819 -> The other elephant in the room is that no one knows exactly how many of Russia’s nukes
222.64 -> actually work - they’re mostly old Cold War nukes that haven’t exactly been maintained
226.36 -> well since.
227.36 -> So Russia’s so-called nuclear deterrent may be a paper tiger.
230.8 -> But Russia has some other cards to play - although they may be long shots.
234.75 -> Russia’s biggest problem in the war has been a lack of allies.
238 -> Most of the world has either lined up behind Ukraine, or largely stayed out of the conflict
241.89 -> entirely.
242.89 -> While some left-of-center leaders like Brazil’s President Lula have issued statements blaming
246.819 -> both sides for the conflict, few are actually supportive of Russia’s attack.
251.079 -> Those few allies include Russian puppet state Belarus, and a few outlaw nations like Iran
255.579 -> and North Korea that view the war as a proxy conflict between the US and the opposition.
260.34 -> Those two countries have been providing Russia with most of its weapons as it’s been the
263.9 -> only way for the nation to get equipment while avoiding sanctions in recent months, but it’s
268.48 -> far from enough to make a difference.
270.52 -> Which is why one ally might be the key.
272.949 -> China has played a unique role in Russia’s war so far, with Xi Jinping wasting no time
277.25 -> draping his arm around Vladimir Putin and declaring their great powers in sync - bolstering
281.759 -> their power in opposing the US.
284.23 -> Since then, China has been a critical ally to Russia while it’s under sanctions.
287.6 -> It’s one of Russia’s largest trading partners, and has been key to providing it with supplies.
292.33 -> Analysts believe that China wants Russia to win the war to kick off an “age of conquest”
296.419 -> where China’s eventual attack on Taiwan will be less strongly opposed by the international
301.05 -> community.
302.05 -> So many people are wondering…why isn’t China acting like they’re all-in?
305.53 -> Xi Jinping talks a big game about supporting Russia, but it’s been hesitant in one major
310.19 -> area - it has not supplied Russia with lethal aid, aka weapons, and this is an area where
315.009 -> Russia is in dire need.
316.94 -> There might be a couple of reasons for this, with the most obvious being that China fears
320.36 -> secondary sanctions from the west.
322.31 -> Unlike Russia, China has massive ties to the United States in just about every sector,
326.83 -> especially technology, and if it’s hit with sanctions because of its involvement in the
330.539 -> war in Ukraine, it could both devastate the country’s economy and cut it off from valuable
334.93 -> resources.
335.93 -> But there might be one even bigger factor.
338.61 -> Right now, Russia looks like a loser and China isn’t in the business of doing business
342.35 -> with losers.
343.51 -> China was probably ready to supply Russia with what it needed in the early days of the
347.56 -> war, but as soon as the attempt to conquer Kyiv failed and NATO rallied, China backed
351.52 -> off.
352.52 -> That means that, ironically, the more Russia needs weapons, the less likely they are to
355.419 -> get them.
356.419 -> China is probably waiting for evidence that Russia can win the war before they get any
359.96 -> more involved in the conflict- because the consequences of backing a failed war could
364.02 -> be bigger than the benefits of backing a successful one.
367.22 -> Which means that Russia has some heavy lifting to do if it wants to dream about a grand victory
371.41 -> parade in Moscow.
372.88 -> For one thing, it’ll need allies - with China at the top of the list.
376.169 -> In order to win, Russia would need to destabilize the Kyiv government, and that means it’ll
380.06 -> need to get a lot closer to the capital than it is now.
383.06 -> Russia doesn’t have the weapons for a massive offensive now, and only China can likely provide
387.66 -> them, so it might be able to coax China into taking the risk if it can show them a concrete
392.479 -> plan - and that plan would likely start with two eastern European countries.
396.78 -> The first would be Belarus, where dictator Alexander Lukashenko is deep in debt to Putin.
401.59 -> While Lukashenko’s military is weak and wouldn’t be of much help even if they helped
405.32 -> in Ukraine, Putin would likely settle for access to the border to launch an offensive
409.729 -> towards Kyiv from the north.
411.599 -> But Ukraine has fended that off before - so another base is needed.
415.75 -> Moldova is a small country that doesn’t even border Russia - instead being sandwiched
419.759 -> between Ukraine and Romania - but it might be the next flashpoint in Russia’s expansionism.
424.47 -> That’s because Russia has sponsored a Russian separatist movement in the country’s east,
428.78 -> in a region called Transnistria.
431.039 -> This slit of land borders Ukraine’s south, and while Russia is using it to destabilize
435.81 -> Moldova’s pro-western government, it might be more interested in the battalion of armed
439.729 -> Russian troops stationed there - ostensibly to protect the pro-Russian population.
444.63 -> That army could be used to launch a sneak attack on Ukraine, bringing Russian forces
448.169 -> close to Kyiv from two directions.
450.53 -> But would it be enough?
452.069 -> The truth is, it’s possible - but unlikely.
454.53 -> Putin would need absolutely everything to go right.
456.75 -> First, he would have to get a near-blank check from China for weapons.
460.26 -> Then, the dual attack from Belarus and Moldova would have to be incredibly successful and
464.27 -> effective to take Ukraine and its NATO weaponry by surprise.
467.9 -> But the goal would be to invade Kyiv, capture Zelenskyy or drive him into exile, and install
472.27 -> a puppet regime in Kyiv to surrender.
474.72 -> Putin would then use the latest in a string of unhinged threats against NATO to scare
478.919 -> them off further intervention, now that the collaborator government in Ukraine wanted
482.849 -> them out.
483.849 -> It would be ugly, unlikely, and it’s just about the only path for a definitive win for
487.98 -> Putin in Ukraine that wouldn’t be likely to trigger a much larger conflict.
492.349 -> And it’s highly unlikely that Russia could pull it off.
495.259 -> But what about the alternative?
496.509 -> When the war began, there was a sense of fatalism in all quarters, as most analysts said there
500.78 -> was no way Ukraine could fight back.
502.62 -> The focus was on evacuating civilians and convincing Zelenskyy to fight on in exile.
507.449 -> Then, after the first few weeks, people saw the tide turn and asked the question - could
511.41 -> Ukraine actually win?
513.11 -> The answer seems to be yes - but it’s not going to be easy.
515.84 -> Russia now controls less territory than it did in the weeks after invading, is still
519.769 -> battling over bombed-out cities in the east, and is facing a terrible casualty rate that
523.729 -> is bleeding its military and supplies to the bone - without a reliable supplier like Ukraine
528.279 -> has.
529.279 -> And that has made Ukraine increasingly bold, as they talk about reclaiming every last inch
532.96 -> of territory Russia has taken from them.
535.3 -> But that last mile will likely be the hardest.
538.25 -> Ukraine has pretty close to a blank check from the west at the moment, with the United
541.87 -> States and the rest of NATO not only supporting their cause but seeing this as a great opportunity
546.3 -> to neutralize Russia’s military for the next few decades.
550.1 -> While some prominent names - including a certain ex-reality TV host - have groused about the
554.45 -> amount being spent on weapons being sent to Ukraine, the country has bipartisan support
558.709 -> in most western nations and is getting everything from advanced anti-missile systems to state-of-the-art
563.69 -> tanks.
564.69 -> With a few major exceptions.
566.49 -> The weapons Ukraine has been getting are heavily geared towards ground warfare and defensive
570.71 -> warfare, and the one area where the west has been hesitant to grant Zelenskyy’s requests
574.88 -> is in long-range warfare.
576.87 -> No fighter planes, no long-range missiles - because as supportive as the west is of
580.89 -> Kyiv, they don’t want Zelenskyy to have the ability to escalate the war and hit into
585.34 -> Russia directly.
586.57 -> Not that’s stopped Putin - a clearly staged drone attack on the Kremlin led to Putin blaming
590.62 -> both Ukraine and the US and vowing revenge.
593.25 -> But right now, the west seems more interested in helping Ukraine fight off Putin than in
597.49 -> helping it strike a decisive blow.
599.85 -> And this might be as much about self-preservation as anything else.
603 -> Putin likes his nuclear threats and makes them every few minutes, but one of the concerns
607.05 -> is that Russia does not have a no-first-strike policy.
610.04 -> That means that Russia could respond to a conventional attack with a nuclear one - and
613.35 -> the Kremlin has not been shy about reminding the west about this policy.
617.18 -> While analysts doubt both the health of Russia’s nuclear arsenal and Putin’s willingness
621.04 -> to use it, they’re not taking any chances.
623.69 -> But Zelenskyy doesn’t want to conquer Russia - he just wants to reclaim the territory taken
627.51 -> by it, and that includes the Crimean peninsula seized back in 2014.
631.64 -> In recent months, Ukraine has become increasingly bold - striking arms depots across the border
636.2 -> and targeting supply bridges in Crimea.
638.42 -> And this may be a no-going-back point.
641.12 -> Putin was able to conquer Crimea with relatively little opposition save global condemnation,
645.93 -> because the Kyiv government at the time was pro-Russia.
648.31 -> Since then, he has declared Crimea as formally part of Russia - and claims any attempts to
653.5 -> recover it would be attacking HIM!
655.56 -> So the West has been hesitant to back Ukrainian efforts to reclaim it, even as they still
659.63 -> acknowledge it as part of Ukraine.
661.49 -> But Crimea is key to accessing the Black Sea and controlling the shipping routesin the
665.08 -> area, which means that taking it back might be as close as it gets to striking a winning
669.24 -> blow in the war.
670.3 -> So what’s Ukraine’s strategy likely to be going forward?
674.26 -> Kyiv is likely to pursue a continued war of attrition - taking back cities where it can,
678.7 -> forcing Russia to grind for every spare inch of territory at the cost of troops and supplies
682.61 -> they don’t have, and striking at key supply routes.
685.579 -> This type of war will have a heavy cost for Ukraine as well, but as long as they maintain
689.61 -> support in the west, they can keep it up much longer than Russia can.
693.16 -> From there, they hope to mount a final offensive to drive the Russians out of Crimea, expanding
697.28 -> their borders back to what they were post-independence.
700.43 -> Ukraine likely has no interest in defeating Russia, just in getting the Russians out of
704.06 -> their territory - and with western backing, they just may be able to do it.
707.829 -> But there’s one big hitch in this plan.
709.192 -> The war ends when Putin says it ends, to a large degree.
713.43 -> And rather than retreating if Ukraine pushes Russia out of the conquered areas, he is more
717.029 -> likely to want to escalate - hitting Ukraine with a barrage of missiles designed to maximize
721.209 -> civilian casualties.
722.38 -> This may not have any chance of success, but it can prolong the war indefinitely.
726.839 -> So the only way this war may actually end with a Ukrainian victory is with Putin’s
730.839 -> death or removal, likely from natural causes, illness - or a Russian retirement plan that
736.36 -> ends with a trip out a fifth floor window courtesy of his generals.
739.79 -> From there, a new Russian leader may simply decide that Putin’s Folly isn’t worth
743.209 -> any more blood and treasure.
745.18 -> But many wars don’t end in a battlefield victory - so is it time to give peace a chance?
750.11 -> One word has been on people’s minds for the last few months as the war enters a new
753.7 -> stage - negotiations.
755.94 -> Could they bring an end to the war?
757.62 -> A lot of people seem to think so, and there has been no small amount of controversy over
761.65 -> it.
762.65 -> First, a coalition of around thirty progressive members of Congress released an open letter
766.05 -> calling for the Biden administration to pursue a negotiated end to the war - and then quickly
770.42 -> rescinded the letter after being criticized for insufficient support for a US ally.
775.339 -> Amid arguing over whose fault it was that the letter was released, they were joined
778.45 -> by an unlikely ally - arch-conservative Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who indicated that
782.839 -> he would take a more even-handed approach to resolve the war if he became President.
787.89 -> And it’s not just US voices in the mix.
790.769 -> Several left-of-center leaders in South America and elsewhere have laid blame on both sides
794.74 -> and called for negotiations, but no voice was more prominent than China - which tried
799.11 -> to cast itself as an even-handed broker and offered to host peace talks.
803.39 -> With China seen as firmly in Russia’s corner in every way except providing weapons, this
807.81 -> was met with mass skepticism, especially after a leaked plan showed China’s peace plan
812.02 -> would involve a partition of Ukraine that left Russia with much more of the country
816.31 -> than it had now - although these documents were never authenticated.
819.829 -> But the problem is, there might be nothing to negotiate over.
824.19 -> Negotiations usually begin with the two sides on opposite ends of the table, with the goal
827.74 -> of moving them closer and closer together, but some issues are simply intractable.
832.01 -> Currently, Russia stated that any part of Ukraine that has a significant Russian-speaking
835.829 -> population actually belongs to them, that Ukraine’s Jewish President is a Nazi, that
841.15 -> Ukraine should have never been independent in the first place, and that Ukraine is actually
844.589 -> the one attacking them, not the other way around - and every few weeks, it seems like
848.57 -> they come up with a new grievance to add to the pile.
851.38 -> Meanwhile, Ukraine’s platform at the negotiating table comes down to two words - Russkies Out!
856.279 -> Sometimes, issues that seem intractable turn out to be workable.
859.91 -> This was the case with Israel and its many enemies in the Arab world.
863.22 -> Countries like Egypt and Jordan, which started out refusing to even recognize Israel’s
867.25 -> existence, eventually signed peace deals and now cooperate extensively with Israel on key
871.089 -> security issues.
872.57 -> On the other hand, negotiations with the Palestinian Authority have never reached the finish point
876.69 -> due to some key issues - like whether millions of Palestinians who are related to the ones
880.699 -> who became refugees in 1948 will be allowed to return to Israel proper.
885.13 -> So even if Russia and Ukraine came to the negotiating table, there is no guarantee of
889.649 -> success.
890.649 -> Putin has made very clear he is not willing to negotiate, but a potential future leader
894.49 -> like Defense Secretary Sergei Shoigu might see this as a potential way out of a war he
899.16 -> didn’t start and knows Russia can’t win.
901.37 -> While clearly Ukraine wouldn’t negotiate its own surrender, they might be influenced
905.329 -> to make certain concessions - like ceding Crimea, which has been under Russian control
909.37 -> for nine years now.
910.97 -> And Russia’s top demands might not be from Ukraine - they might demand the removal of
914.779 -> all sanctions once the deal is signed.
917.34 -> This could be a messy way to end the war, but would require a rational Russian leader
921.57 -> and a conciliatory Ukraine - both of which seem rather unlikely.
925.839 -> Which means that the most likely way for the war in Ukraine to end is for it…not to end.
930.98 -> Much like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, many wars don’t end in a neat way.
935.52 -> The most globally famous example of this is probably in the Korean peninsula, where the
939.64 -> western-aligned South Korea and insular, Communist North Korea have been locked in a frozen state
943.94 -> of conflict for over seven decades with a carefully guarded DMZ between them and occasional
948.829 -> bloody skirmishes.
950.35 -> And this could be Russia and Ukraine’s future, with neither side able to strike a final blow
954.26 -> against the other.
955.26 -> And it all comes down to whether Russia says “Enough”.
958.529 -> Does Russia still have ambitions of conquering Kyiv?
961.47 -> The odds are yes, but it’s looking increasingly impossible.
964.98 -> Ukraine, meanwhile, is equally determined to reclaim every inch of its land, but that
968.959 -> may get harder the further they push into places like the Donbas, which Russia has claimed
973.279 -> to annex.
974.279 -> And with his army weakening by the day along with his public support, and no way to replenish
978.779 -> either, the odds are that Putin is nervously looking for a way out of this self-inflicted
982.67 -> quagmire.
983.7 -> Which means that he may be looking for the exit - the only question is where he places
987.23 -> that exit.
988.23 -> It’s possible that at some point, Putin would simply declare victory, boost forces
992.04 -> in the area he currently controls, and cease attacks within the rest of Ukraine.
995.25 -> But at the same time, he would likely make some very dramatic threats about what would
999.21 -> happen if his new border was breached.
1001.72 -> If some concessions were made - such as Russia repatriating the many Ukrainian children kidnapped
1006.62 -> back to Ukraine - the western world might lean on Kyiv to accept this imperfect finish
1011.389 -> to the war and move on with its 80% of its original territory.
1014.91 -> But Kyiv would likely see this as a prelude to another attack by Russia, which is why
1018.88 -> they would likely want to join NATO as a guarantee of future protection.
1022.7 -> This would essentially lock in the current occupied areas as zones of conflict, with
1026.641 -> both sides claiming victory - Russia taking its conquered territory, and Ukraine defending
1031.179 -> its sovereignty.
1032.579 -> Would this end the conflict?
1034.339 -> Yes…but also no.
1036.679 -> The areas conquered by Russia would be a perpetual conflict zone going forward, with a large
1041.031 -> Ukrainian population under Russian control.
1043.41 -> Flare-ups would be common, with likely incursions by both sides whenever shooting began.
1048.319 -> The war as it was would be over, but the battle would continue - and likely would for a very
1052.76 -> long time, until there was a change in control in one or both countries.
1056.96 -> The war would go from a hot conflict to a constant simmer, as both Russia and Ukraine
1061.34 -> jockeyed for an advantage while trying to avoid a full war they couldn’t afford.
1065.62 -> It would be a messy, unsatisfying end to the conflict for just about everyone involved.
1069.85 -> Which might just make it the most likely option.
1072.15 -> Want to know more about the current state of the conflict?
1074.88 -> Check out “Analyzing Russia’s Massive Failures in War Against Ukraine” or watch
1078.88 -> “Why Putin Has a Huge Weapons Problem” for more insight into what’s keeping the
1082.539 -> Russian leader up at night.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLt-DvBKEJY