Will Russia use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine? Putin's Decision, US Reaction & the New START Treaty
Will Russia use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine? Putin's Decision, US Reaction & the New START Treaty
Is Russia going to start using nuclear weapons in Ukraine? That’s a question that a lot of people are asking right now after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would be suspending its nuclear weapons treaty with the US. That may sound pretty ominous but what does it actually mean?
The New START treaty was signed by Russia and the US in 2010. It’s main purpose is to limit the number of nuclear warheads that each country is allowed to deploy. ‘Deploy’ basically means having the warheads out in position and ready to go.
More than 90% of the world’s nuclear warheads are owned by Russia and the US but only a small fraction of those are actually active and deployed. The treaty caps deployed warheads at 1550, which might sound like a lot, but is actually far fewer than what was active during the Cold War. Another key part of the treaty is that it allows for 18 on-site inspections every year, which basically allows both countries to keep an eye on the other to make sure they’re following the rules. The thing is, this part of the treaty hadn’t really been working as intended for the past couple of years.
Meanwhile, Russia said that it was being blocked from making inspections because various sanctions were blocking its inspectors from getting visas and being able to travel to the US. So, the suspension of this treaty didn’t exactly come as a big surprise to a lot of experts. In fact, some were actually expecting the US to be the first ones to pull out. The question that a lot of people are asking now, is: Does this mean that Russia, or even the US, are going to start using nuclear weapons?
According to a wide range of experts, at this stage, it’s very, very unlikely and also that’s not really what this move to suspend the treaty is trying to achieve. Right now there really isn’t an incentive for either side to start using nuclear weapons. Both sides are well aware of the absolute devastation that would be caused by nuclear war.
Now, there are some people that argue that Putin is irrational or delusional and that he might not care about the risks or impacts of nuclear war, but, the flip side to that argument, is that there’s a big difference pushing propaganda in public and genuinely dismissing the reality of nuclear war.
Even if we disregard all of that, using nuclear weapons would still be a huge strategic risk from Russia’s perspective because it could also easily turn its war in Ukraine into a direct war with the entirety of NATO. And despite the fact that Putin continues to tell the public that Russia is, pretty much, already at war with NATO, Putin is aware that there’s a big difference between NATO supplying Ukraine with military aid and having to directly fight the combined military forces of NATO.
So, what is this treaty suspension actually about? According to a lot of experts, it’s basically just diplomatic negotiating tactics. Both countries have signalled that they haven’t been happy with how the other country has been approaching the treaty. So, suspending the deal is seen by some as a way to force both sides to come back to the negotiating table. There’s also the argument that this is a way for Russia to give the United States another reason to question its ongoing support of Ukraine.
The final question here, is: what happens next? One of the big fears, if the treaty does end getting scrapped and not replaced, is that both countries will start making and deploying more nuclear warheads. But, again, that doesn’t mean that that’s what Russia wants, because if another arms race did kick off, Russia simply wouldn’t be able to financially keep up with the United States.
Overall, this announcement obviously isn’t great news for the future of nuclear arms reduction, but that doesn’t mean that we won’t see the US and Russia come to another agreement.
In the very same speech that he announced the suspension, Putin made a very big point to emphasise that Russia didn’t want to scrap the deal, just temporarily put it on ice and pretty much immediately after the announcement, the US said it would be willing to restart talks with Russia at any time. - Nicholas Maher
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0 -> is Russia going to start using nuclear
2.22 -> weapons in Ukraine that's a question
4.02 -> that a lot of people are asking right
5.64 -> now after Russian President Vladimir
7.56 -> Putin announced that Russia would be
9.36 -> suspending its nuclear weapons treaty
11.4 -> with the U.S that may sound pretty
13.559 -> ominous but what does it actually mean
15.66 -> the new start treaty was signed by
17.94 -> Russia and the U.S in 2010. its main
20.64 -> purpose is to limit the number of
22.199 -> nuclear warheads that each country is
24.24 -> allowed to deploy deploy basically means
26.939 -> having the WarHeads out in position and
28.92 -> ready to go it's a sort of a successor
31.74 -> treaty a follow-on treaty to a number of
33.42 -> Cold War treaties that tried to put
35.88 -> limits on the nuclear arms race more
38.219 -> than 90 of the world's nuclear warheads
40.26 -> are owned by Russia and the us but only
42.84 -> a small fraction of those are actually
44.879 -> active and deployed the treaty caps
47.219 -> deployed Warheads at 1 550 which might
50.46 -> sound like a lot but is actually far
52.379 -> fewer than what was active during the
54.12 -> Cold War
55.62 -> another key part of the treaty is that
57.96 -> it allows for 18 on-site inspections
60.6 -> every year which basically allows both
62.699 -> countries to keep an eye on the other to
64.619 -> make sure they're following the rules
65.82 -> the thing is this part of the treaty
68.22 -> hadn't really been working as intended
70.14 -> for the past couple of years there
71.88 -> hasn't been very close compliance with
73.619 -> it over the last few years anyway the
75.72 -> inspections that were supposed to happen
76.979 -> weren't happening because of covert and
78.659 -> then because the Russians wouldn't allow
79.979 -> it meanwhile Russia said that it was
82.2 -> being blocked from making inspections
83.759 -> because various sanctions were blocking
85.799 -> its inspectors from getting visas and
88.02 -> being able to travel to the US so the
90.78 -> suspension of this treaty didn't exactly
92.82 -> come as a big surprise to a lot of
94.619 -> experts in fact some are actually
96.42 -> expecting the US to be the first ones to
98.4 -> pull out there was a strong indication
100.74 -> that the Americans will be the first to
102.36 -> pull the plug the question that a lot of
104.46 -> people are asking now is does this mean
106.979 -> that Russia or even the us are going to
109.38 -> start using nuclear weapons according to
111.899 -> a wide range of experts at this stage
114.36 -> it's very very unlikely and also that's
117.659 -> not really what this move to suspend the
119.64 -> treaty is trying to achieve I don't
121.92 -> think the Russians announcing formally
123.899 -> that they're no longer going to
125.1 -> participate in this treaty really makes
127.38 -> much of a difference to whether Russia
130.38 -> considers using nuclear weapons in
132.239 -> Ukraine or not
133.68 -> either there is an incentive to do so or
136.08 -> there isn't and right now there really
138.06 -> isn't an incentive for either side to
140.22 -> start using nuclear weapons both sides
142.56 -> are well aware of the absolute
144.3 -> devastation that would be caused by
145.92 -> nuclear war what's Putin said about the
149.4 -> agreement with the United States uh does
153 -> not indicate at all that nuclear weapons
155.459 -> will be used now there are some people
157.8 -> that argue that Putin is irrational or
160.739 -> delusional and that he might not care
162.959 -> about the risks or impacts of nuclear
165.239 -> war
167.92 -> [Music]
171 -> but the flip side to that argument is
173.459 -> that there's a big difference between
174.84 -> pushing propaganda in public and
177.18 -> genuinely dismissing the reality of
179.16 -> nuclear war the war that is often used
181.379 -> is irrational he's delusional he'll push
185.819 -> the red button just because he can this
188.099 -> is no not the situation that I observe
190.5 -> under the majority of the Russians CEO
193.019 -> is fully aware of the horrific
195.54 -> consequences of using nuclear weapons
198.239 -> even tactical because it can very easily
201.3 -> escalate to an all-out nuclear
203.819 -> confrontation which will put an end to
206.58 -> the civilization as we know it even if
209.76 -> we disregard all of that using nuclear
212.099 -> weapons would still be a huge strategic
214.44 -> risk from Russia's perspective because
216.239 -> it could easily turn its war in Ukraine
218.4 -> into a direct war with the entirety of
221.459 -> NATO and despite the fact that Putin
223.86 -> continues to tell the public that Russia
225.72 -> is pretty much already at war with NATO
227.94 -> Putin is aware that there's a big
229.739 -> difference between NATO supplying
231.48 -> Ukraine with military aid and having to
233.76 -> directly fight the combined military
235.739 -> forces of NATO the red battle will be
238.56 -> pushed only when the very existence of
241.319 -> the country or political system of the
244.26 -> country thousands upon thousands of
246.36 -> Russian waves I speak it will be the
248.519 -> last resort that's one of the reasons
250.439 -> why some of the military backing by the
253.379 -> West at the backing of Ukraine has been
256.019 -> Limited in certain areas because they've
258 -> been trying to signal to Russia that
260.22 -> they understand the risks the escalation
262.26 -> risks here and that they are not trying
265.74 -> to sort of push the Russians into a
267.24 -> corner where they feel like they have no
268.56 -> other choice friends so what is this
270.9 -> treaty suspension actually about
272.699 -> according to a lot of experts it's
274.74 -> basically just diplomatic negotiating
276.72 -> tactics there's no expectation or
279.479 -> interpretation inside Russia among the
282.12 -> military political security
283.259 -> intellectuals that this is a challenge
285.419 -> to the West like a direct threat that
287.52 -> the nuclear war is coming or even that
290.759 -> the new round of nuclear arms races now
294.72 -> upon us no it's just a pretty blunt
297.72 -> diplomatic tactic to force the United
301.02 -> States to to meet Russia halfway both
305.04 -> countries have signaled that they
306.24 -> haven't been happy with how the other
307.68 -> country has been approaching the treaty
309.36 -> so suspending the deal is seen by some
312.06 -> as a way to force both sides to come
313.979 -> back to the negotiating table there's
315.84 -> also the argument that this is a way for
317.639 -> Russia to give the United States another
319.56 -> reason to question its ongoing support
321.54 -> of Ukraine the war in Ukraine is going
323.58 -> very badly for Russia and he doesn't
326.039 -> have many levers to pull he hasn't got
327.72 -> much leverage and is looking for other
329.759 -> ways to try and pressure the United
331.32 -> States into backing off over this
333.66 -> conflict and basically saying if you
335.94 -> care about the future of Arms Control
337.259 -> you can care about this treaty you need
340.02 -> to back off over Ukraine the final
342.72 -> question here is what happens next one
345.36 -> of the big fears if the treaty does end
347.1 -> up getting scrapped and not replaced is
349.199 -> that both countries will start making
350.82 -> and deploying more nuclear warheads uh
353.58 -> the potential is for a new round of the
356.16 -> nuclear arms race as a result of
357.84 -> Russia's actions but again that doesn't
360.479 -> mean that that's what Russia wants
362.34 -> because if another arms race did kick
364.68 -> off Russia simply wouldn't be able to
366.66 -> financially keep up with the United
368.1 -> States overall this announcement
370.44 -> obviously isn't great news for the
372.479 -> future of nuclear arms reduction but
374.759 -> that doesn't mean that we won't see the
376.74 -> US and Russia come to another agreement
378.9 -> I don't think either the Russian
380.82 -> Federation or the United States wants to
