World War I: The Seminal Tragedy - The Final Act - Extra History - #4
World War I: The Seminal Tragedy - The Final Act - Extra History - #4
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Serbia responds to Austria-Hungary’s ultimatum after the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, and the pretext for war grows thinner and thinner. Caught between a rock and a hard place, Austrian Foreign Minister Leopold Berchtold makes a desperate decision to declare war. Kaiser Wilhelm of Germany and Czar Nicholas II of Russia call upon their family ties to each other in a last ditch effort to avert the war, but their previous inattention has left their prime ministers Bethmann-Hollweg and Sazonov in impossible positions. With their forces mobilized, unable to back down, Russia must accept Germany’s declaration of war from ambassador Pourtalès - and as our series ends, the Seminal Catastrophe begins.
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Get the intro music here!
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*Music by Demetori: http://bit.ly/1AaJG4H
Get the outro music here!
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We also recommend these episodes!
Extra History - World War I: The Seminal Tragedy
Chapter 1: The Concert of Europe: http://bit.ly/1uLnt5X
Extra Credits - Why Mechanics Must Be Both Good and Accurate
Historical Games: http://bit.ly/1CZXb5v
Content
0 -> ♪ ♪
5.566 ->
6.2 -> [male narrator]
The 24th of July, 1914.
9.233 -> It's late at night.
10.533 -> A group of haggard-looking men sit
in a dim room in the ministry in Belgrade.
14.666 -> One of them holds the Austrian
ultimatum in his hands.
17.433 -> They've spent the day
debating how to reply.
19.833 -> Defeated, they're about to
give in to all demands.
22.833 -> A note is slipped
under the door.
24.7 -> It says that the Russians
have started to mobilize.
27.366 -> They change their reply,
and the final act begins.
30.7 -> In their reply, the Serbians agree
to nine out of ten Austrian demands.
34.7 -> They only refuse to allow Austrian officials
to have police powers within Serbia.
38.933 -> But their reply is a
masterstroke,
41.066 -> an act of genius in
the way it concludes.
43.066 -> For, at the end, it says that if the
Austrians don't find their terms to be fair,
46.666 -> the Serbians are more than willing to
submit to the resolution of a conference.
50.433 -> But if you'll remember,
the Austrians hate conferences.
53.066 -> They are always getting
out-voted at those things.
55.666 -> Well, no more.
56.5 -> Not this time.
57.466 -> They are livid at the
Serbian reply,
59.333 -> but like always, they turn to their
German allies for advice.
62.533 -> The Kaiser is still at sea,
64 -> so Austrian's foreign minister Berchtold
goes to consult Bethmann Hollweg
67.466 -> and Moltke, the head of
the German army.
69.366 -> They are apoplectic.
70.8 -> They say, "What?
71.733 -> “You haven't declared
war already?!
73.5 -> “A month has gone by.
74.733 -> “Get on with it!
75.466 -> “This isn't what we agreed to.
77.066 -> We're losing the sympathies
of the people of Europe."
79.333 -> You see, after the
assassination of the Archduke,
81.466 -> public opinion in Europe
weighed heavily against Serbia.
84.4 -> It was politically impossible
for anybody to support them then.
87.366 -> But now a month
has passed,
88.8 -> and this reply, this meeting of
most of the Austrian demands
92.066 -> and this offer for mediation, made
the Serbs seem like the reasonable party.
95.833 -> After all, what more could
Austria want?
98.033 -> So with the rebukes of the
Germans driving him,
100.466 -> Berchtold returns to
Austria-Hungary
102.466 -> and for the first time speaks
with Conrad von Hötzendorf,
105.266 -> the Chief of Staff of
the Austrian army.
107.5 -> He too is apoplectic.
109.066 -> "What, declare war?
110.233 -> “Are you kidding me?
111.166 -> “You needed to tell us weeks ago
if that's what you wanted to do!
113.766 -> “The Austrian army won't be ready for war
until the 14th of August, weeks from now!
118 -> “Plus, we don't even know
who we're mobilizing against.
120.633 -> “You want us to prepare
for war with Serbia?
122.8 -> “Yeah, not when Russia's
mobilized against us, we aren't.
125.733 -> “Get us a guarantee of Russian
neutrality and then maybe,
128.633 -> maybe, we can talk about
mobilizing against the Serbs."
131.933 -> Despondent, pressured toward
war by the Germans,
134.466 -> told that Austria isn't ready
by his own Chief of Staff,
137.066 -> Berchtold returns home
and begins to think.
139.8 -> As the hours grow later, he starts to
convince himself there's way out of this.
143.833 -> He starts to reason that declaring war
isn't necessarily the same as being at war.
148.766 -> And so maybe if he
declares war now,
151.033 -> he'll placate the Germans
and be able to use that threat
153.9 -> to get the Serbs
to capitulate
155.233 -> before he even needs the Austrian
army to be ready to fight.
158.533 -> Now we can all see this for the
desperate rationalization that it is.
161.633 -> We've all at one time or another gotten
ourselves into an impossible situation
165.433 -> and let ourselves believe in
some wild, hair-brained solution
168.466 -> that'll surely fix everything.
169.933 -> Only when we do that, the fate of the world
isn't usually hanging in a balance.
173.8 -> And so,
on the 28th of July,
175.9 -> Austria-Hungary
declares war on Serbia,
178.633 -> with Berchtold all the while believing
he's going to bring peace by declaring war.
183.066 -> But that morning,
the morning of the 28th,
185.233 -> Kaiser Wilhelm II
got back to Potsdam.
187.933 -> That very morning, the Kaiser
read the Serbian response
190.766 -> to the Austria Ultimatum
and uttered,
192.766 -> "With this, every reason
for war drops away."
195.8 -> And here is one of the great tragedies
of those frantic July days leading to the war.
200.033 -> This man, Wilhelm II, for all his
inadequacies, for all his failings,
204.333 -> for once in his life steps up and
tries to become the man he should be,
208.133 -> the man who deserves to rule
the most powerful nation in the world.
211.033 -> And he comes so close.
212.9 -> And yet, despite his
best attempt, he's too late.
215.933 -> The world doesn't
reward his effort,
217.766 -> things spiral into chaos, war comes,
and his empire will fall.
222.333 -> The Kaiser tries
to open peace talks,
224.266 -> perhaps even
hold a conference,
225.833 -> but the Austrians
will have none of it.
227.666 -> So he proposes
a novel solution:
229.766 -> Halt in Belgrade.
231.666 -> Belgrade, the Serbian capital, is just a few
miles from the Austrian border.
235.133 -> If the Austrian army
occupies the capital,
237.4 -> they can declare
victory and save face
239.266 -> while showing the rest of Europe
that they don't plan to annex Serbia.
242.5 -> And they can do it quickly enough to
perhaps keep the Russians out of the war.
245.866 -> But this proposal has
to go through Bethmann,
248.133 -> and Bethmann is in Berlin.
249.633 -> Now get this: It's 1914,
so as impossible as it seems,
253 -> there was no telephone line
between Berlin and Potsdam.
255.7 -> So Bethmann can't
reply directly.
257.433 -> He's pretty skeptical of the
Halt in Belgrade plan,
260.2 -> but instead of making the drive
to Potsdam for clarification,
262.933 -> he passes it along to
German agents in Austria
265.433 -> with the instructions not to press
the Austrians too hard to adopt it.
268.633 -> And he doesn't even mention that
it comes from the Kaiser himself.
271.733 -> Meanwhile, in Russia,
272.933 -> Sazonov gets reports of
Austrians shelling Belgrade.
276.266 -> These reports are false,
of course.
277.866 -> The Austrian army won’t be ready
to do anything until August 14th,
280.933 -> but he has no way
of knowing that.
282.533 -> So he, one of the last men
opposed to full Russian mobilization,
286 -> lets the dam break
287.266 -> and declares himself for a full
mobilization of the Russian army.
290.566 -> He and the Russian Chief of Staff,
Yanukovych,
293.066 -> go to see the czar and convince
him that the time has come.
296.066 -> General mobilization is ordered.
298.133 -> Night falls.
299.2 -> It’s 1:00 AM and
the czar can’t sleep.
302 -> He sends a telegram to the
Kaiser of Germany and it reads thus:
306 -> “I’m glad you’re back.
307.266 -> “In this serious moment,
I appeal to you to help me.
310.3 -> “An ignoble war has been
declared to a weak country.
313.366 -> “The indignation in Russia
shared fully by me is enormous.
317.133 -> “I foresee that very soon
318.466 -> “I shall be overwhelmed by
the pressure forced upon me
321 -> “and be forced to take extreme measures,
which will lead to war.
324.333 -> “To try and avoid such a
calamity as a European war,
327.033 -> “I beg you in the name of our
old friendship to do what you can
330.1 -> “to stop your allies
from going too far.
332.2 -> Nicky.”
333.7 -> Now you have to remember
that these two men were cousins.
336.1 -> They were friends.
337.2 -> All the avenues of
diplomacy had failed.
339.366 -> All the standard bureaucratic mechanisms
of the state were driving them to war.
343.2 -> So they reached out to each other,
as cousins, as friends,
345.733 -> to see if the two of them dealing
directly, person-to-person,
348.633 -> could avoid this war.
350.166 -> And in a touch that could only come
from these twilight days of empire
353.666 -> did they not refer to
each other as Czar or Kaiser.
356.3 -> They don’t even refer to each
other as Wilhelm and Nicholas,
358.633 -> but rather as
Willy and Nicky.
360.6 -> The Kaiser is awake
too and he responds.
362.766 -> A flurry of telegrams
get sent back and forth.
365.433 -> At the end of these
correspondences,
367.066 -> Nicholas picks up the phone,
calls Yanukovych
369.366 -> and tells him to call off
the general mobilization.
372 -> Yanukovych splutters and
starts to reel off all the things
374.6 -> that cancelling mobilization
means they’re going to have to do,
376.833 -> but the czar says “Cancel it,”
and hangs up the phone.
380.166 -> On the morning of the 30th,
Sazonov hears what the czar has done.
383.566 -> He's shocked.
384.833 -> He pulls in the head of the Duma,
the Russian parliament,
387.433 -> and the patriarch
of the Orthodox Church
389.5 -> and they go in for a knockdown,
drag-out meeting with the czar.
392.966 -> The room is crowded, it’s hot,
talks are getting nowhere,
396.366 -> and then Nicholas moves off alone,
staring out the window at St. Petersburg, trying to think.
401.733 -> After a few minutes of reflection,
coming to no conclusion,
404.766 -> a young man, an aide to Kemp,
standing near the czar says,
408.433 -> “Majesty, we know how difficult
it must be for you to decide.”
411.933 -> Without intention,
these words cut.
414.4 -> Nicolas had always been called the weak,
indecisive, feckless leader,
418 -> and he hated it.
419.4 -> He wanted to shake off all those names
people had been calling him for so many years.
423 -> He wanted to show the world he
wasn’t some wishy-washy prince
425.8 -> who couldn’t make up
his mind.
427.266 -> And so like that, with the words
from some aide to Kemp
430.433 -> whose name history
has forgotten,
431.9 -> Nicolas turns around and says,
“I will sign the order.”
435.533 -> Back in Germany,
Bethmann has finally come around.
438 -> They’re starting to make progress with
the Austrians on the Halt in Belgrade plan.
441.6 -> The British have even said
that this plan has their support.
444.266 -> But Berchtold won’t accept it,
446.1 -> can’t accept it unless the Russians
agree to halt their mobilization.
449.566 -> And here we hit the Catch-22
of the First World War.
452.6 -> This is the age of the train,
454.533 -> the period where logistics and
timetables dominated military thinking.
458.433 -> All around Europe, it was thought
that if you could just get your army
461.233 -> to the battlefield while the other
guy’s forces were still arriving,
464 -> you’d crush them
every time.
465.866 -> You’d win without contest.
467.866 -> And as we’ve seen with the Austrians,
mobilization can take weeks.
471.066 -> It is a Herculean task to coordinate
and move the millions of men
474.7 -> that made up
a modern army.
476.133 -> And if Russia acquiesces
and has her army stand down,
479.033 -> they will be
impossibly behind.
481.066 -> If they stop mobilization and then
Austria or Germany decide to attack,
484.966 -> they’ll have lost
the war without a fight.
487.3 -> So Russia can’t stop
mobilization.
489.7 -> But if Russia mobilizes, that means
Germany has to mobilize too
492.933 -> or face the same
dilemma.
494.266 -> And now with
Germany mobilized,
496.033 -> what can France do
but mobilize themselves?
498.3 -> After all, the Franco-Russian War
taught them a hard, bitter lesson
501.433 -> about what happens when you get
your army to the field too slowly,
504.266 -> and they will not be
making that mistake again.
506.4 -> And so the dominoes
start to fall.
509.166 -> But there’s one
last attempt,
511.033 -> one last try to stop that
crushing chain of causality
514.566 -> leading the world
inextricably to war.
516.666 -> Portales, the poor German diplomat
playing a bit part in a tragedy
520.333 -> that he has the desire
but not the means to avert,
523.1 -> has one last meeting
with Sazonov.
525.466 -> He says to Sazonov,
“Call off the general mobilization.”
528.733 -> And Sazonov says,
“No.”
530.8 -> Portales pleads,
531.866 -> “For God’s sake, there will be
no winner in this war.
534.433 -> “If we fight,
it’ll be a revolution.
536.366 -> “It will be the
end of monarchy.
538.4 -> “It will be the
end of us both!
539.8 -> Won’t you please
call off this madness?”
542.133 -> And Sazonov says,
“No.”
544.5 -> Portales drops to
his knees and says,
546.466 -> “If you do this,
it will be slaughter.
548.833 -> “I beg of you in the name
of all that is right and decent,
551.933 -> call off this mobilization.”
554.066 -> And Sazonov says,
“No.”
556.2 -> Then Portales rises to his feet and
takes a piece of paper from his pocket,
560 -> and says, “In that case, sir, I have the
honor to inform you that we’re at war.”
566.133 -> He stilled, struggling to
collect himself, saying,
569.4 -> “Never thought I’d be
leaving Russia like this.
572.033 -> I don’t know how
I’ll be able to pack.”
574.2 -> Sazonov kindly offers to send
somebody to help gather his things,
578.1 -> and a month later,
a million men are dead.
581.266 -> The seminal catastrophe
has begun.
583.6 -> [Choir singing “In Flanders Fields”
by John McCrae]
585.1 -> ♪ In Flanders Fields the poppies blow
Between the crosses, row on row ♪
598.733 -> ♪ That mark our place; and in the sky
The larks, still bravely singing, fly ♪
615.633 -> ♪ Scarce heard amid the guns below.
We are the Dead. Short days ago ♪
627.633 -> ♪ We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow
Loved and were loved, and now we lie ♪
639.866 -> ♪ In Flanders Fields
In Flanders Fields ♪
646.133 -> ♪ and now we lie
in Flanders Fields ♪
654.633 -> ♪ Take up your quarrel with the foe
To you from failing hands we throw ♪
666.866 -> ♪ The torch; be yours to hold it high
If ye break faith with us who die ♪
679.233 -> ♪ We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders Fields, in Flanders Fields. ♪
691.233 -> ♪ We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders Fields, in Flanders Fields. ♪
708.6 ->
709.533 -> Captions Provided by:
711 -> The University of Georgia
Disability Resource Center
712.366 -> 114 Clark Howell Hall
Athens, Georgia 30602
713.766 ->
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WukYrrTH3ms